Portugal’s fragmented election leaves far-right Chega surging

[EUROPE] Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) has emerged as the winner in the country’s third snap general election in as many years, though it once again fell short of securing an outright majority. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party (PS) faced an unexpected challenge for second place from the far-right Chega party, which achieved its best-ever result with 22% of the vote.

With 99% of ballots counted by midnight Sunday, the AD, led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, captured 32.1% of the vote, translating to 86 seats in the 230-seat parliament—well below the 116 needed for a majority. The PS trailed at 23.4%, narrowly ahead of Chega’s 22.6%, with both parties tied at 58 seats each.

Chega’s strong performance reflects a broader shift across Europe, where far-right parties have been gaining traction amid growing public discontent over immigration, economic stagnation, and disillusionment with traditional political elites. Long viewed as an outlier, Portugal now appears to be aligning with this continental trend, raising fresh concerns about political volatility.

Overseas ballots, still to be tallied in the coming days, could potentially push Chega into second place—marking the first time in nearly four decades that the Socialists have not finished among the top two parties.

In the previous election, held just 14 months ago, the AD secured 80 seats, PS won 78, and Chega took 50. Addressing supporters early Monday, Montenegro claimed a "clear and reinforced mandate" to govern, despite lacking a parliamentary majority. “The people want this government and this prime minister,” he declared. He reiterated his refusal to negotiate any majority deal with either the Socialists or Chega.

“Just let us work,” Montenegro urged. Chega leader André Ventura hailed his party’s surge—which improved significantly on the 18% secured in the last vote—as a game-changer for Portuguese politics. “We’ve ended 50 years of Socialist and conservative rule,” Ventura proclaimed, adding that the result marked the end of bipartisanship in the country.

Chega’s rise has laid bare widening social divisions, especially between rural and urban voters. The party performed particularly well in conservative bastions such as the Alentejo and Portugal’s northern interior, but made limited gains in urban centres like Lisbon and Porto, where the AD and PS retained support. This growing urban-rural divide mirrors similar patterns across Europe, where populist parties have drawn strength from communities left behind by globalization and social change.

“We didn’t win this election, but we’ve made history,” Ventura told an enthusiastic crowd, expressing hope his party might still take second place once all votes are counted.

However, Ventura’s celebrations are likely to be tempered by Montenegro’s categorical rejection of any alliance with Chega. “Governing with Chega is impossible for three reasons,” Montenegro has said in the past. “It’s unreliable, constantly shifts positions like a weather vane, and is unfit for government.” The Liberal Initiative, a smaller party that could boost the AD’s numbers by about seven seats, has also ruled out any cooperation that would bring Chega into power.

Despite the AD’s win, Montenegro now faces the challenge of governing in a deeply fragmented parliament if President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa invites him to form a government. Meanwhile, the PS is expected to conduct internal reviews following a disappointing result.

The Socialists' decline has been attributed to infighting and a series of scandals, including the controversial "golden visa" program and allegations of cronyism under former Prime Minister António Costa. New party leader Pedro Nuno Santos, who only recently took the helm, was unable to reverse the party’s fortunes.

On Monday, Santos announced he would step down and not stand in the upcoming leadership vote. Marina Costa Lobo, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon, described Chega as “the big winner of the night” in comments to Agence France-Presse.

This snap election was triggered in March after Montenegro faced growing scrutiny over a data protection consultancy he founded in 2021 and later transferred to his family. Amid conflict-of-interest allegations—denied by the prime minister—a confidence vote was held and ultimately failed, leading to the dissolution of parliament.

Campaign debates centered on issues such as housing, public services, and public safety. Immigration, a key issue for Chega, also gained prominence, particularly after the caretaker government ordered the expulsion of 18,000 undocumented migrants earlier this month—prompting accusations of pandering to the far right.

Portugal’s housing crisis emerged as a major campaign flashpoint, particularly for younger voters and low-income families. Skyrocketing rents and a shortage of affordable homes have fueled widespread frustration, with protest movements like Casa Para Viver (Home to Live) demanding radical reforms. While the AD proposed tax breaks for developers, critics argued the measures favored investors over residents, allowing Chega to tap into populist anger.

Founded just six years ago, Chega has positioned itself as an alternative to Portugal’s political establishment, appealing to voters frustrated by stagnating wages—currently averaging €1,602 monthly—and stressed healthcare and education systems.

However, the party’s image as a force for accountability has been marred by recent scandals. In January, one MP was expelled over allegations of luggage theft at airports, another was caught drunk driving, and a third was charged with soliciting sex from a 15-year-old boy.

Ventura’s final campaign days were also disrupted by health issues. After being hospitalized twice with esophageal spasms and high blood pressure, he made a surprise return to the campaign trail for Chega’s final rally on Friday.