Oil prices stable amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty

[WORLD] Oil prices remained largely flat in early trading on Monday as investors kept a close watch on developments in Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations and upcoming economic indicators from China, both of which could influence global demand for crude amid lingering trade tensions with Washington.

Brent crude futures slipped by 5 cents to $65.36 a barrel as of 0022 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude inched up 3 cents to $62.52. The June WTI contract, set to expire on Tuesday, saw light activity, with the more actively traded July contract falling 4 cents to $61.93 per barrel.

Both benchmarks posted gains of over 1% last week following a temporary truce in the trade dispute between the United States and China—the world’s two largest economies and top oil consumers. The agreement includes a 90-day suspension of new tariffs, which has helped improve market sentiment.

Investors are now awaiting a series of Chinese economic reports due later on Monday, including industrial production figures. As the world's largest oil importer, China’s economic performance is a key driver of global energy demand. Any signs of weakening growth or factory activity could dampen oil consumption, potentially putting pressure on prices.

"Any sign of weakness could undermine the optimism fueled by the U.S. tariff pause," analysts at ANZ noted in a research briefing.

Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Iran-U.S. nuclear talks also lent some support to prices. Negotiations resumed Sunday in Oman, with Washington pushing for a complete halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment—a demand that has been firmly rejected by Tehran. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff reiterated on Sunday that any agreement must involve Iran ending enrichment activities, a position swiftly criticized by Iranian officials.

“There had been considerable optimism built into these talks,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. “But they’ve been mired in challenges, particularly with mixed signals from U.S. officials and Iran’s continued insistence on its right to enrich uranium for civilian use.”

Sycamore added that Tehran is unlikely to willingly abandon its nuclear ambitions, especially in the wake of setbacks involving regional proxies that have historically served as a strategic buffer.

Elsewhere, tensions in Europe escalated after Russia detained a Greek-owned oil tanker that had departed from an Estonian port. The incident follows Estonia’s earlier seizure of a tanker linked to Russia, highlighting growing maritime friction in the Baltic region. The European Union is reportedly preparing new sanctions targeting Russia’s so-called "shadow fleet," potentially adding to geopolitical risk in energy markets.

In the U.S., domestic producers continued to rein in drilling activity. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active oil rigs declined by one to 473 last week—the lowest level since January—as companies prioritize spending cuts, a move that could temper output growth in the months ahead.