Four key threats to Social Security from Trump’s policies

[UNITED STATES] Social Security, one of the cornerstone programs of the U.S. social safety net, has been a topic of heated debate in recent years. As the 2024 election cycle heats up, former President Donald Trump's policies remain a key concern for many, especially regarding their potential impact on Social Security. In his previous term, Trump’s actions and proposed policies raised alarms about the long-term stability of the program. Here, we will explore four key threats to Social Security posed by Trump’s policies.

1. Proposed Tax Cuts and Deficit Increases

One of the most significant concerns regarding Trump’s economic policies, including the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, is its impact on the federal deficit. According to experts, tax cuts designed to benefit corporations and wealthy individuals have significantly reduced federal revenues. While the intent behind these cuts was to stimulate economic growth, the result has been a marked increase in the national deficit.

The deficit directly impacts Social Security, as it relies on the federal budget for funding. The program is primarily funded through payroll taxes, but as the national debt grows, there is pressure to reduce spending across the board, including in entitlement programs like Social Security.

By increasing the deficit, Trump’s tax cuts put Social Security at risk by heightening the possibility of future cuts or reforms aimed at balancing the federal budget. As former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has noted, “Tax cuts that don’t pay for themselves are a very real threat to programs like Social Security in the long run.”

2. Efforts to Privatize Social Security

During his time in office, Trump repeatedly floated the idea of privatizing Social Security, a policy championed by some conservative think tanks. Privatization would involve diverting Social Security funds into private investment accounts, with the argument that individuals could receive a higher return on their retirement savings through the stock market.

While the promise of greater returns may sound appealing, it carries significant risks. Social Security is a guaranteed safety net, providing retirees with a predictable, stable income regardless of the fluctuations in the stock market. Privatization, on the other hand, could leave retirees vulnerable to market crashes and other economic instability.

Moreover, transitioning to a privatized system would require massive upfront costs to maintain Social Security benefits during the transition period. This would further exacerbate the federal deficit, putting additional strain on an already fragile program. As Teresa Ghilarducci, a labor economist and professor, has pointed out, “Privatizing Social Security would destabilize the system and reduce benefits for future retirees.”

3. Proposals to Cut Social Security Benefits

Another concerning aspect of Trump’s policies for Social Security has been his previous support for cutting benefits. While Trump has publicly stated that he does not intend to reduce Social Security benefits during his time in office, many of his policies align with those of other conservatives who advocate for benefit reductions.

For example, proposals such as raising the retirement age or reducing cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) for beneficiaries would result in lower payouts for millions of retirees. These cuts would disproportionately affect low-income seniors, who rely more heavily on Social Security benefits to make ends meet.

In his 2020 budget proposal, Trump called for significant cuts to social safety net programs, including Social Security. Although the proposal was ultimately rejected, it indicated that Trump’s administration was willing to entertain discussions about cutting benefits in the future. As Ghilarducci noted, “Any attempt to cut Social Security benefits would be disastrous for millions of Americans who depend on the program to survive in retirement.”

4. The Impact of Immigration Policies on Social Security Funding

Trump’s stance on immigration also poses a threat to Social Security’s future. Many immigrants contribute to Social Security through payroll taxes, but Trump's policies to reduce immigration have led to a decline in the number of workers entering the labor force. This decline is particularly problematic for Social Security because the program’s funding is largely dependent on the payroll taxes collected from workers.

A shrinking labor force means fewer contributions to the Social Security Trust Fund, which could result in funding shortfalls in the coming decades. The elimination of programs like DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) further limits the number of young, tax-paying immigrants who could help support the program.

As Ghilarducci explains, “A growing economy with a rising number of workers is critical for the health of Social Security, and restrictive immigration policies limit that potential.”

What Can Be Done?

While Trump’s policies represent significant threats to Social Security, there are steps that can be taken to protect and strengthen the program. One key action is to lift or eliminate the cap on earnings subject to Social Security taxes. Currently, individuals who earn above a certain threshold (about $160,000 in 2025) stop paying Social Security taxes on their higher earnings. Removing this cap could provide a boost to the program’s funding, ensuring it remains solvent for future generations.

Another potential solution is to introduce measures that would help slow the growth of the deficit, such as reducing wasteful military spending or reevaluating the efficacy of tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. As Ghilarducci has argued, “Instead of focusing on cutting Social Security benefits, we should be focusing on growing the economy in a way that benefits all Americans, not just the wealthy few.”

Social Security has long been a lifeline for millions of Americans, providing essential financial support for retirees, disabled individuals, and survivors. However, former President Trump’s policies and proposals have raised serious concerns about the future of the program. From increasing the deficit through tax cuts to advocating for privatization, cuts to benefits, and restrictive immigration policies, these actions threaten the stability and sustainability of Social Security.

To ensure the program continues to serve as a reliable source of support for future generations, it is crucial that policymakers focus on strategies that promote long-term economic growth, protect workers' rights, and safeguard the solvency of Social Security. By doing so, we can help ensure that Social Security remains a vital resource for all Americans for years to come.