Why would North Korea go to war for Russia?

[WORLD] North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine war represents a strategic calculation aimed at advancing its own interests while supporting its ally, Russia. This unprecedented move has far-reaching implications for global security and the balance of power in East Asia. By examining the motivations behind this decision, we can gain valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of international relations and the challenges facing the current world order.

The Deepening Alliance Between North Korea and Russia

The relationship between North Korea and Russia has entered a new phase, characterized by increased military cooperation and mutual support. This strengthening alliance is evident in recent developments:

Defense Pact Signing

Earlier this year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a mutual defense agreement during a summit in Pyongyang. This pact, ratified by the Russian State Duma, commits both nations to assist each other in the event of an armed attack. This marks the closest North Korean-Russian relations since the Cold War era.

Arms Deal and Military Aid

The alliance has manifested in tangible military support. North Korea has provided Russia with ammunition and weapons, including ballistic missiles, to aid in its war effort against Ukraine. The scale of this support is significant, with estimates suggesting that Pyongyang has sent millions of artillery rounds to Moscow.

Troop Deployment

In a dramatic escalation of support, North Korea has sent thousands of troops to Russia. The United States confirmed the arrival of approximately 3,000 North Korean soldiers at Russian military bases, potentially for deployment in Ukraine. This move represents a substantial commitment from North Korea and a significant boost to Russia's military capabilities.

Motivations Behind North Korea's Support

North Korea's decision to support Russia so overtly is driven by a complex set of motivations:

1. Technological Gains

Nuclear and Missile Technology

One of the primary incentives for North Korea is the potential access to advanced military technology. As US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell noted, discussions about what North Korea would receive from Russia likely involve "nuclear or long-range missile-development plans". This could significantly enhance North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, which are already a source of international concern.

Submarine and Satellite Technology

North Korea has expressed interest in technologies for nuclear-powered submarines and advanced satellite systems. Collaboration with Russia could provide access to these cutting-edge technologies, bolstering North Korea's military capabilities and strategic positioning.

2. Economic Benefits

Sanctions Relief

North Korea's economy has been severely impacted by international sanctions. By aligning closely with Russia, North Korea may be seeking ways to alleviate these economic pressures. The partnership could provide avenues for sanctions evasion and access to essential resources.

Food and Petroleum Products

Kim Jong-un is in a position to demand food and petroleum products from Russia in exchange for military support. These resources are crucial for North Korea, which has faced chronic food shortages and energy crises.

3. Strategic Advantages

Combat Experience

Involvement in the Ukraine conflict offers North Korean forces a rare opportunity to gain real combat experience. This practical knowledge could be invaluable for North Korea's military development and strategic planning.

Weapons Performance Data

The deployment allows North Korea to gather performance data on its weapons in actual combat situations. This information is crucial for refining and improving their military technology.

4. Geopolitical Leverage

Counterbalance to US Influence

By aligning with Russia, North Korea strengthens its position against the US-led liberal world order. This alliance provides Pyongyang with increased leverage in its dealings with the United States and its allies.

Regional Power Dynamics

The partnership with Russia elevates North Korea's status in regional power dynamics, potentially increasing its influence in East Asian geopolitics.

Implications and International Reactions

The involvement of North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict has significant implications and has elicited strong reactions from the international community:

US and NATO Response

Serious Concern

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin described North Korea's troop deployment as a "very serious issue". The Biden administration has pledged to continue providing security assistance to Ukraine and is discussing further steps with allies and partners.

NATO's Perspective

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, viewing it as a sign of "growing desperation" on Putin's part. This assessment underscores the challenges Russia faces in sustaining its military operations in Ukraine.

Impact on South Korea

Shifting Policy Considerations

South Korea, traditionally cautious about directly providing weapons to countries in conflict, is reconsidering its stance. Senior South Korean officials have indicated that a change in policy regarding military aid to Ukraine is under consideration.

Regional Security Concerns

The deepening North Korea-Russia alliance raises significant security concerns for South Korea and other regional allies. It potentially alters the balance of power in Northeast Asia and complicates efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

China's Position

Diplomatic Balancing Act

China, traditionally aligned with both Russia and North Korea, has remained publicly neutral on the issue. A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Beijing "does not have information" on the troop deployment and continues to advocate for de-escalation in the conflict.

North Korea's decision to support Russia in the Ukraine conflict represents a calculated move to advance its strategic interests. By providing military aid and troops, Pyongyang aims to secure technological, economic, and geopolitical benefits. This alliance challenges the existing international order and raises significant concerns for global security.

As the situation evolves, the international community must remain vigilant and responsive. The implications of this partnership extend far beyond the immediate conflict in Ukraine, potentially reshaping power dynamics in East Asia and beyond. Understanding North Korea's motivations is crucial for developing effective strategies to address this new geopolitical reality and maintain regional stability.