Trump’s Saudi arms deal faces scrutiny

[MIDDLE EAST] The Trump administration has hailed its US$142 billion (S$184.53 billion) arms agreement with Saudi Arabia as “the largest defence sales agreement in history." But critics remain unconvinced.

Announced during former President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East, the deal appeared wide-ranging and ambitious, covering prospective sales for air force and space systems, missile defence, coastal security, and other military enhancements.

Yet, much like the broader US$600 billion economic accord it was packaged with, the defence deal offered few concrete details.

Skeptics were quick to question the figures. A major concern is whether Saudi Arabia can realistically absorb such a vast influx of advanced weaponry, given its ongoing struggles with training, maintenance, and integrating existing U.S. systems into its operations.

Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former U.S. intelligence and national security official, noted that the kingdom’s total defence budget for 2025 is estimated at just US$78 billion.

“It’s great publicity – makes it look like this trip was spectacularly successful,” Mr Riedel said. “But the numbers don’t add up.” Requests for further clarification—including the types of systems being sold, contract terms, and delivery schedules—went unanswered by the White House, Pentagon, and Saudi Embassy. The State Department deferred inquiries to the White House.

Analysts within the defence industry suggest that many components of the proposed deal, such as THAAD missile interceptors and F-35 fighter jets, have been under discussion for years. Final approvals have frequently been delayed by political and logistical challenges, including congressional resistance tied to Saudi Arabia’s human rights record.

Such repackaging of existing or pending agreements into high-profile announcements during presidential visits is not new. In 2017, during a previous trip to Riyadh, Mr Trump unveiled a US$110 billion arms package—much of which consisted of deals initiated under the Obama administration or still in early negotiation stages requiring legislative and contractor input.

According to a January State Department fact sheet, more than US$30 billion of that 2017 package has since been implemented.

The slow pace underscores persistent challenges in Saudi defence procurement, often complicated by changing priorities, fiscal constraints, and broader geopolitical factors. Saudi interest in advanced platforms like the F-35, for example, has been hampered by Israeli objections and U.S. commitments to preserving Israel’s military edge in the region.

Riyadh’s ability to fund such purchases is also in question, particularly amid declining oil revenues and increased domestic spending. The kingdom’s debt surged by roughly US$30 billion in the first quarter alone—its highest level on record.

Should concrete deals emerge from the latest announcement, analysts say they will have to untangle what is genuinely new from what has long been in the pipeline. The U.S. already has over US$129 billion in active military sales to Saudi Arabia, according to the State Department.

Yet beyond the numbers, the agreement underscores the enduring—if sometimes strained—partnership between Washington and Riyadh. That alone may be seen as a victory for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, following years of frosty relations. President Joe Biden once labeled him a “pariah” over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and froze offensive weapons sales to the kingdom.

The Biden administration’s temporary halt on arms exports, combined with Saudi Arabia’s increasing diplomatic and economic outreach to China and Russia, had tested the alliance. The new deal suggests a thaw, though human rights concerns and regional security issues could still complicate congressional approval—especially for sensitive systems like the F-35.

“A lot of this is about the optics, but the optics matter,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “It’s an attempt to send a message of reassurance after several years of uncertainty in the US-Saudi bilateral relationship on defence cooperation.”

While concrete gains may take time, areas like missile defence could see immediate benefits, according to Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He noted that Saudi Arabia’s need for such capabilities is significant and the U.S. remains a key provider.

With some European allies showing reluctance to purchase American arms, Saudi Arabia’s openness is a welcome signal for U.S. defence manufacturers. However, the sheer scope of the potential purchases has raised concerns about maintaining Israel’s “qualitative military edge”—a longstanding U.S. policy.

Dana Stroul, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East, said the categories cited by the White House align with Saudi Arabia’s long-term modernisation goals. Without specifics, she noted, there is little cause for alarm regarding regional balance.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia continues to push for a formal mutual defence pact with the U.S. and a civilian nuclear programme—driven in part by deep-seated doubts about Washington’s long-term reliability.

“They don’t trust the U.S. a hundred per cent,” said Dr Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. He added that Riyadh is likely to keep hedging its bets, engaging with Iran, China, and Russia even as it pursues strategic advantages like the F-35.