Trump says US nears Iran nuclear deal

[MIDDLE EAST] President Donald Trump announced on May 15, 2025, that the United States is "very close" to reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, highlighting Tehran's tentative acceptance of key terms. However, significant differences remain, including Iran's demand for phased sanctions relief and assurances against future U.S. withdrawal from any deal.

Diplomatic Optimism and Market Reactions

During a visit to Qatar, President Trump expressed cautious optimism about the ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran. He noted that Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the proposed terms, emphasizing the administration's preference for diplomatic solutions over military action.

Trump's remarks had an immediate impact on global markets, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate oil prices dropping by over 3%. Investors interpreted the potential agreement as a step toward regional stability and the easing of sanctions.

The president’s comments come amid increasing pressure from European allies, who have urged both Washington and Tehran to seize the current diplomatic momentum. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—original signatories of the 2015 deal—have reportedly offered to act as intermediaries in the final stages of the talks. A senior EU official said the bloc is prepared to offer "technical and economic incentives" to support the enforcement of a renewed agreement.

In the U.S., the announcement has stirred political debate. Congressional Democrats have largely welcomed the prospect of a deal, framing it as a necessary step to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Several Republican lawmakers, however, remain skeptical of Iran’s intentions and have called for congressional oversight before any agreement is finalized. Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) stated, "We cannot afford another flawed deal that allows Iran to regroup and rearm behind a facade of compliance."

Key Points of the Proposed Agreement

According to U.S. officials, the proposed deal includes Iran's commitment to limit uranium enrichment and accept international inspections in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Iranian adviser Ali Shamkhani indicated Tehran's willingness to permanently renounce nuclear weapons and reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium to civilian-use levels.

However, substantial gaps remain. Iran seeks a phased removal of enriched uranium and solid guarantees against future U.S. withdrawal from any agreement. These demands have been a point of contention in the negotiations.

Experts note that the phased timeline is a crucial sticking point. Iran is wary of rapidly dismantling its nuclear program without concrete legal guarantees from the U.S. that sanctions will not be reimposed under a future administration. Analysts at the International Crisis Group suggest that a multilateral framework involving the UN Security Council may be necessary to anchor any agreement in international law, thus making unilateral withdrawal more difficult.

Historical Context and Previous Engagements

The current negotiations follow a series of diplomatic efforts initiated by President Trump earlier this year. In March 2025, Trump sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, expressing a desire to negotiate a new nuclear deal. While initial responses were dismissive, subsequent indirect talks began in April, with meetings held in Oman and Rome.

These discussions aim to replace the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which the U.S. withdrew in 2018. The Trump administration has emphasized the need for a more robust agreement that addresses Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional activities.

Iran, for its part, has signaled a desire to end its economic isolation. Years of sanctions have severely impacted its economy, leading to inflation, currency depreciation, and widespread public discontent. A renewed deal could unlock billions of dollars in frozen assets and restore access to international financial markets. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, under pressure from both hardliners and reformists, has framed the negotiations as a path to national dignity and economic revival.

Regional and Global Implications

The potential agreement has significant implications for regional and global security. Iran's compliance with the proposed terms could lead to a reduction in tensions and a decrease in oil prices, benefiting global markets. However, the success of the negotiations hinges on resolving key issues, including the timeline for sanctions relief and assurances against future U.S. withdrawal.

While President Trump's announcement suggests progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, substantial challenges remain. The outcome of these talks will depend on the ability of both parties to bridge existing gaps and reach a mutually acceptable agreement. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the future of U.S.-Iran relations and regional stability.