Romania’s far-right surge sets stage for high-stakes presidential runoff

[EUROPE] An ultranationalist politician who has fiercely opposed military aid to Ukraine, disparaged EU leadership, and branded himself Donald Trump’s “natural ally” has secured a strong lead in the first round of Romania’s rerun presidential election, setting the stage for a runoff against a centrist challenger as vote counting nears completion.

With 95% of ballots tallied late Sunday, George Simion—leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), a party that gained traction during the pandemic as an anti-vaccine movement—was projected to win roughly 40% of the vote.

Simion’s rise reflects a broader surge in far-right support across Europe, as populist and nationalist movements tap into public frustration over immigration, economic disparity, and EU influence. In Romania, AUR’s message has particularly resonated in rural regions, where skepticism toward the political establishment and dissatisfaction with slow reforms run deep.

In a close contest for second place, Bucharest's centrist mayor Nicușor Dan had edged slightly ahead of former senator Crin Antonescu, a pro-European figure, both hovering just below 21%. Final results are expected early Monday.

The top two candidates will face off in a runoff on May 18, nearly six months after the original presidential vote was annulled amid revelations of an alleged large-scale Russian interference campaign.

The cancellation of that initial vote has sparked claims of political manipulation and further polarized public opinion. While supporters of the court's decision argue it was essential to safeguard Romanian democracy, backers of Simion view it as an elite-driven attempt to silence dissent—fueling AUR’s anti-establishment narrative and enhancing Simion’s appeal as a defender of "true democracy."

Although polling in Romania is often unreliable, some surveys suggest Simion could defeat Dan in a head-to-head runoff, though he may have faced tougher odds against Antonescu, a familiar political name despite a decade-long absence from public office.

A victory for Simion would mark a dramatic shift in Romania’s foreign policy stance. As a member of both the EU and NATO, and a neighbor to war-torn Ukraine, Romania could pivot from its pro-Western trajectory under his leadership, potentially becoming a disruptive force within both the European Union and the transatlantic alliance.

Simion has sparked concern among NATO allies with calls to reassess Romania’s defense commitments and his vocal opposition to supporting Ukraine. His foreign policy rhetoric—marked by skepticism of collective defense structures—could strain relations with strategic partners such as the U.S. and Germany, especially amid heightened regional tensions.

Such a shift would likely be welcomed by nationalist conservatives across Europe and in the United States, including figures from the Trump camp like U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who previously accused Romania’s leadership of undermining democracy by voiding the original election.

That earlier vote was won by far-right, pro-Kremlin independent Călin Georgescu, who claimed to have run without campaign spending. The Constitutional Court annulled the result after declassified intelligence reports exposed an alleged Russian disinformation operation.

Georgescu, who denies the allegations, is currently under investigation for campaign finance violations, abuse of digital platforms, and promoting fascist ideologies. He was disqualified from the rerun in March.

These developments have heightened fears over foreign interference in Romanian politics. Analysts warn that similar disinformation campaigns could reemerge in the lead-up to the runoff, particularly online, where AUR maintains a strong digital presence.

Romania’s presidency, though not fully executive, carries significant influence over foreign policy, national security, defense budgets, and judicial appointments. The president also plays a key role in EU decision-making.

Discontent with the political elite is running high in Romania, where median household income is roughly one-third of the EU average. Over 30% of the population faces poverty or social exclusion, and nearly one in five Romanians work abroad.

Simion has capitalized on economic grievances, pledging to prioritize domestic welfare over international commitments. His campaign blends nationalist rhetoric with populist promises, though critics argue his platform is short on substance and could deepen fiscal strain.

Casting his vote in Bucharest alongside Georgescu on Sunday, the 38-year-old Simion declared, “We have one mission: a return to constitutional order and democracy. I have no goal other than first place—for the Romanian people.”

Georgescu, 63, labeled the rerun a “fraud orchestrated by those who have made deceit the only state policy,” but said he voted to “recognize the power of democracy and the vote that terrifies the system.”

Dan, 55, a mathematician and founder of the anti-corruption Save Romania Union (USR), is running as an independent under the pro-European “Honest Romania” banner. He described his vote as “for hope and a new beginning.”

Antonescu, 65, supported by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the center-right National Liberals (PNL), said he voted “for a united, strong, and dignified Romania.”

While Simion has portrayed himself as more moderate than Georgescu, he has consistently emphasized national sovereignty and controversially called for the restoration of Romania’s pre-WWII borders—territories now part of Moldova and Ukraine, both of which have barred him entry.

Unlike Georgescu, Simion has publicly criticized Russia while lambasting Brussels and embracing Trump-style populism. He has voiced plans to create an EU alliance aligned with MAGA (Make America Great Again) ideals.

Simion also pledged to bring Georgescu into government if elected, saying: “There are several paths to leadership for Mr. Georgescu—he could be appointed prime minister, we could call snap elections, or hold a referendum.”

In parliamentary elections held last December, AUR and other far-right parties claimed around 35% of seats. Though technically possible, a snap election would require two failed government formation attempts within 60 days—an unprecedented scenario that experts view as unlikely, given the cohesion of the current centrist coalition.

If elected president, Simion has promised to disclose the extent of Romania’s contributions to Ukraine’s war effort, which he claims have come at the expense of Romanian citizens.

So far, Romania has donated a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, trained Ukrainian pilots, and facilitated the export of 30 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain via its Black Sea port of Constanța since Russia’s invasion began.