Kamala Harris' uphill battle: Rebuilding Biden's 2020 winning coalition for 2024

As the 2024 presidential election looms on the horizon, Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself in a pivotal position. With President Joe Biden stepping aside, Harris has taken up the mantle as the Democratic Party's standard-bearer. However, her path to victory is far from assured, as she faces the daunting task of rebuilding and energizing the diverse coalition that propelled Biden to the White House in 2020.

The Challenge of Recreating Biden's Success

The Biden coalition of 2020 was a broad and complex alliance that brought together various demographic groups under a unified banner. It included strong support from Black and Hispanic voters, young people, women, and even made inroads with some traditionally Republican-leaning constituencies. Recreating this winning formula is proving to be a significant challenge for Harris.

According to recent polling data, Harris is struggling to match Biden's 2020 performance among several key groups. The performance of Vice President Kamala Harris in 2020 with key members of the Democratic coalition, such as voters of African descent, voters of Hispanic descent, and young people, is significantly worse than that of President Joe Biden. Concern is being expressed within Democratic circles as a result of this underperformance, which also highlights the necessity of a robust plan to reengage these essential vote blocs.

Courting Black Voters: A Critical Imperative

Black voters have long been a cornerstone of the Democratic Party's base, and their support was crucial to Biden's victory in 2020. However, Harris, despite being the first Black vice president, is finding it challenging to maintain the same level of enthusiasm among this demographic.

According to a survey of the national electorate conducted by the Associated Press VoteCast, Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters in the year 2020. However, according to a survey conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in July, just 74% of persons of African descent expressed approval of Harris. The loss of 18 points is huge and could have serious repercussions for the result of the election, particularly in important swing states that have big populations of people of African descent.

To address this, Harris has been actively engaging with Black community leaders, historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), and Black-owned businesses. Her campaign is emphasizing her own background as a graduate of Howard University and her experience as a Black woman in politics. The goal is to reignite the enthusiasm and turnout levels seen in 2020.

Hispanic Voters: A Growing and Crucial Demographic

The Hispanic vote is another area where Harris needs to make significant gains. In 2020, Biden won about two-thirds of Hispanic voters, but recent polls suggest Harris is underperforming with this rapidly growing demographic.

The Harris campaign is ramping up its outreach efforts, with targeted Spanish-language advertising and events in key Hispanic communities. The vice president has been highlighting her own immigrant background and focusing on issues that resonate with Hispanic voters, such as immigration reform, economic opportunity, and access to healthcare.

Energizing Young Voters: The Generation Z Factor

Young voters played a crucial role in Biden's 2020 victory, but engaging this demographic has always been a challenge for politicians. Harris faces the additional hurdle of connecting with Generation Z voters who are entering the electorate for the first time.

To appeal to younger voters, Harris has been emphasizing issues like climate change, student debt relief, and social justice. Her campaign has also been leveraging social media platforms and digital outreach strategies to meet young voters where they are.

Women Voters: Building on Historic Representation

As the first woman vice president, Harris has a unique opportunity to energize women voters. However, she must navigate complex gender dynamics and address a wide range of issues that matter to women across different age groups and backgrounds.

The campaign is focusing on reproductive rights, pay equity, and family-friendly policies to appeal to women voters. Harris has been sharing her personal experiences as a working mother and emphasizing her commitment to advancing women's rights and representation.

Swing State Strategy: Targeting the Battlegrounds

Rebuilding the Biden coalition is not just about national numbers; it's about strategically targeting key swing states that will determine the outcome of the Electoral College. Harris has been focusing her efforts on states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona – all of which were crucial to Biden's 2020 victory.

In these battleground states, Harris is tailoring her message to local concerns and demographics. For example, in the industrial Midwest, she's emphasizing economic policies and job creation, while in Arizona, immigration and border security are key topics.

Addressing Policy Concerns and Crafting a Unified Message

One of the challenges Harris faces in rebuilding the coalition is addressing policy concerns across diverse groups. While some voters may be looking for continuity with Biden's agenda, others are seeking a fresh approach.

Harris has been working to strike a balance, emphasizing her role in the Biden administration's achievements while also presenting her own vision for the future. She's been particularly vocal on issues like climate change, healthcare reform, and economic inequality.

The Role of Campaign Messaging and Media Strategy

Effective communication is crucial in rebuilding and energizing the coalition. The Harris campaign has been refining its messaging strategy, focusing on themes of unity, progress, and American resilience.

The campaign is also leveraging various media channels to reach different segments of the electorate. This includes traditional media appearances, digital advertising, and grassroots organizing efforts.

Overcoming Obstacles and Building Momentum

Despite the challenges, there are signs that Harris is making progress in rebuilding the coalition. Recent campaign events have shown increasing enthusiasm, and some polls suggest she's narrowing the gap with her Republican opponents.

With less than three months remaining until the day of the election, Harris is confronted with a formidable obstacle in the form of the task of reassembling the coalition that was responsible for Biden's triumph four years ago. The campaign is aware of the challenges that lie ahead, but it continues to maintain a positive outlook regarding its capacity to inspire voters and construct a coalition that will win.

Looking Ahead: The Path to November

As the election draws nearer, the Harris campaign will need to intensify its efforts to rebuild and expand the Biden coalition. This will involve continued outreach to key demographic groups, refining policy proposals, and effectively communicating Harris's vision for the country.

The success of these efforts could well determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. As Harris continues her campaign, all eyes will be on whether she can recreate the diverse and energized coalition that proved so successful for Biden in 2020.