China’s vanishing economic data

[WORLD] China's economic landscape is becoming increasingly opaque as critical data points vanish or remain unreleased, raising alarms among investors, analysts, and policymakers. From the cessation of youth unemployment statistics to the suppression of dissenting economic analyses, the absence of transparent and reliable information is casting doubt on the true health of the world's second-largest economy.

Shrinking Data Availability

In 2023, China halted the publication of its youth unemployment rate, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to downplay economic challenges. This decision has left analysts and investors without a crucial indicator of the labor market's health, further eroding confidence in China's economic reporting.

Additionally, in December 2024, a prominent Chinese economist, Gao Shanwen, estimated that China's GDP growth might have been overstated by 10 percentage points between 2021 and 2023. His analysis, which gained significant attention on social media, was subsequently removed, highlighting the government's sensitivity to critical economic assessments.

Declining Foreign Investment

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has experienced a dramatic decline, falling by 95% from 2023 to 2024. By 2024, the trend reversed, with more capital flowing out of China than coming in. This shift reflects growing apprehension among international investors regarding China's economic policies and future prospects.

Economic Slowdown Indicators

China's manufacturing sector is showing signs of strain. In April 2025, the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49, indicating contraction, while new export orders fell to a low of 44.7. These figures suggest that the manufacturing sector is grappling with reduced external demand and increased trade tensions.

The International Monetary Fund has also downgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from 3.3%, citing escalating U.S.-China trade tensions as a contributing factor.

Government Response and Public Perception

In response to economic pressures, China plans to implement a record budget deficit of 4% of GDP in 2025, aiming to stimulate growth through increased spending. However, this move has been met with skepticism, as many question the effectiveness of such measures in the absence of transparent economic data.

Public confidence is further undermined by the government's control over economic information. The suppression of critical analyses and the lack of independent data sources have led to a climate of uncertainty, making it challenging for investors and the public to assess the true state of the economy.

The diminishing availability of reliable economic data from China is raising significant concerns about the transparency and accuracy of its economic reporting. As critical indicators disappear and dissenting voices are silenced, the international community faces increasing difficulty in evaluating China's economic health. This opacity not only affects investor confidence but also complicates efforts to understand and address the underlying challenges facing the Chinese economy.