Cease-fire deal in Gaza will most likely elude Biden

[MIDDLE EAST] The Biden administration's efforts to broker a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have hit significant roadblocks, casting doubt on the possibility of reaching an agreement before the end of President Joe Biden's term1. Despite months of intensive diplomacy and negotiations, senior U.S. officials are privately expressing pessimism about the prospects of ending the conflict in the near future.

Key Obstacles to a Cease-Fire Agreement

Hostage Release and Prisoner Exchange

One of the major sticking points in the negotiations is the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel must release in exchange for the hostages held by Hamas. This issue has become even more contentious following the recent deaths of six hostages, including an American citizen.

Escalating Tensions with Hezbollah

The recent two-day attack on Hezbollah involving explosive pagers and walkie-talkies, followed by Israeli airstrikes, has significantly increased the risk of a full-scale war in Lebanon. This escalation has further complicated diplomatic efforts with Hamas and added another layer of complexity to the already challenging peace process.

Hamas's Negotiation Tactics

U.S. officials have expressed frustration with Hamas's approach to negotiations. According to Biden administration officials, Hamas often makes demands and then refuses to accept them even after the U.S. and Israel agree to meet those demands. This pattern of behavior has made it difficult to make substantial progress in the talks.

The Three-Phase Ceasefire Proposal

Despite the challenges, efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement have not ceased entirely. A three-phase proposal has been drafted by mediators from Egypt and Qatar, which includes the following stages:

Initial Ceasefire: A six-week ceasefire, release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian detainees, and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Permanent Ceasefire: Israel would accept a permanent ceasefire, and Hamas would release remaining male hostages, both civilians and soldiers.

Final Stage: Release of remains of deceased Israeli hostages and potential lifting of the blockade on the Gaza Strip.

Biden Administration's Continued Efforts

Despite the growing pessimism, the Biden administration remains committed to pursuing a deal. President Biden has announced that the United States will intensify its efforts in collaboration with regional allies to establish a ceasefire in Gaza. This renewed push aims to involve the release of hostages and the removal of Hamas from power.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby emphasized the administration's ongoing commitment, stating, "We are still putting our shoulder to the wheel to get the hostages home and get a cease-fire in place, as daunting as that is today".

Regional Implications and Broader Conflict

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has broader implications for the region. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated significantly, with recent explosions affecting wireless devices across Lebanon resulting in numerous casualties. This escalation threatens to open a second front in the conflict, further complicating peace efforts.

Humanitarian Crisis and International Pressure

The prolonged conflict has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. According to the Hamas-controlled health ministry, over 44,000 people have died and more than 104,000 have been injured since the conflict began. This staggering toll has increased international pressure for a resolution to the conflict.

Challenges for Biden's Foreign Policy

The inability to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza represents a significant challenge for President Biden's foreign policy agenda. As his term nears its end, the administration faces mounting pressure to demonstrate progress in resolving the conflict1. The situation is further complicated by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which may limit Biden's ability to exert pressure on Israel.

The Role of Regional Powers

The involvement of regional powers such as Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey remains crucial in the negotiation process. These countries have played key roles as mediators and continue to be involved in efforts to bring about a resolution. Their influence and relationships with both Israel and Hamas are seen as vital in bridging the gaps between the conflicting parties.

Israel's Stance and Internal Politics

Israel's position in the negotiations is influenced by its internal political dynamics. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure from both hardliners within his government and the Israeli public, who demand a decisive victory over Hamas. This domestic pressure makes it challenging for Israel to make significant concessions in the peace talks.

Hamas's Position and Demands

Hamas continues to insist on a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. These demands are at odds with Israel's stated goal of eliminating Hamas's military capabilities and ensuring long-term security for Israeli citizens.

International Community's Role

The international community, including the United Nations and various countries, continues to call for an immediate ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza. The UN Security Council has adopted resolutions backing ceasefire proposals, but implementation remains elusive.

Looking Ahead: Prospects for Peace

While the immediate prospects for a ceasefire deal appear dim, diplomatic efforts continue. The complexity of the situation, involving multiple stakeholders with divergent interests, makes finding a solution challenging. However, the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the risk of regional escalation provide strong incentives for all parties to continue seeking a resolution.

As the Gaza conflict enters its second year, the elusive nature of a ceasefire deal underscores the deep-rooted complexities of the Israel-Hamas conflict. While the Biden administration remains committed to pursuing a diplomatic solution, the path to peace remains fraught with obstacles. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether a breakthrough can be achieved or if the conflict will continue to simmer, with potentially dire consequences for the region and beyond.