Can Beijing halt the deterioration of US-China relations?

[WORLD] As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the global community watches with bated breath, particularly focusing on the future of US-China relations. The first 100 days of Trump's second term could prove crucial in determining the trajectory of this complex and often tumultuous relationship. With tensions already high, many wonder if Beijing can seize this window of opportunity to prevent a further downward spiral in bilateral ties.

The Critical First 100 Days

The initial months of Trump's presidency will be a litmus test for his approach towards China. This period offers Beijing a unique chance to establish communication channels and potentially influence the course of relations. As Wu Xinbo, dean of the institute of international studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, notes, "If the opening phase proves that his policy is successful and effective, he is likely to continue on that path after the 100-day mark. If he feels that it has not had the desired effect, he may then begin to adjust it later on."

However, the effectiveness of Beijing's efforts remains uncertain, given Trump's unpredictable nature and the deep-rooted structural issues plaguing US-China relations. The Chinese leadership faces a delicate balancing act: they must engage with Trump and his administration while preparing for potential further deterioration in bilateral ties.

Key Issues at Stake

Taiwan

One of the most contentious issues in US-China relations is Taiwan. Trump's previous term saw increased support for Taiwan, including arms sales and high-level diplomatic visits. In his second term, Trump is expected to maintain a hardline stance on this issue, potentially pushing for even greater recognition of Taiwan's autonomy. This approach could severely strain relations with Beijing, which considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory.

South China Sea

The South China Sea dispute remains a significant point of contention. Trump's administration has consistently challenged China's territorial claims in the region through freedom of navigation operations. Continued US presence in these waters could lead to increased military tensions and further complicate diplomatic efforts.

Trade and Economic Relations

Trump has already pledged to impose new duties on Chinese products upon taking office. This move signals a continuation of his aggressive trade policies from his first term. The question remains whether Beijing will retaliate with its own restrictions, potentially igniting a new phase in the ongoing trade war.

Fentanyl Crisis

The fentanyl crisis in the United States has been a point of contention between the two nations. Trump is likely to maintain pressure on China to crack down on the production and export of fentanyl and its precursors. This issue intersects with broader concerns about drug trafficking and public health, adding another layer of complexity to bilateral relations.

COVID-19 Origins Debate

Trump may revive discussions about the origins of COVID-19, a topic that has been a source of significant tension between the US and China. Reopening this debate could further strain diplomatic ties and complicate efforts to collaborate on global health issues.

Beijing's Diplomatic Strategy

Given the challenges ahead, Beijing's diplomatic strategy in the first 100 days will be crucial. Chinese officials will likely attempt to engage with Trump and his senior aides before he officially returns to the White House. This proactive approach aims to establish lines of communication and potentially influence the administration's China policy.

However, the effectiveness of these efforts remains uncertain. As one expert points out, "Beijing's efforts to connect with Trump and his senior aides before he returns to the White House will help set the course for the relationship." Yet, given Trump's unpredictability and the structural strains between the two powers, these efforts may have limited impact.

The Broader Geopolitical Context

The US-China relationship doesn't exist in a vacuum. Other global players, particularly US allies in Asia and Europe, will be closely watching how this dynamic unfolds. Any significant shift in US-China relations could have far-reaching consequences for global trade, security arrangements, and diplomatic alignments.

Moreover, domestic politics in both countries will play a crucial role. In the US, Trump will need to balance his tough stance on China with the economic interests of his supporters, many of whom have been affected by the ongoing trade tensions. In China, President Xi Jinping must maintain a strong posture while avoiding actions that could further damage China's economic growth and global standing.

Potential Scenarios

Scenario 1: Escalation

In this scenario, Trump doubles down on his hardline approach, imposing new tariffs and taking a more confrontational stance on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. China retaliates with its own economic measures and increases military activities in disputed areas. This could lead to a rapid deterioration in relations, with potential global economic and security implications.

Scenario 2: Cautious Engagement

Here, both sides recognize the dangers of further escalation and engage in cautious diplomacy. While major issues remain unresolved, there's an effort to maintain stability and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control. This could involve resuming high-level dialogues and finding areas of potential cooperation, such as climate change or global health.

Scenario 3: Unexpected Breakthrough

Although less likely, there's a possibility that Trump's unorthodox approach leads to an unexpected breakthrough. This could involve a grand bargain that addresses multiple issues simultaneously, potentially reshaping the US-China relationship. However, given the deep-seated issues and lack of trust between the two nations, this scenario remains highly speculative.

The Role of Track II Diplomacy

In times of high tension, track II diplomacy – unofficial dialogues between non-governmental actors – can play a crucial role. Think tanks, academic institutions, and business leaders from both countries may need to step up their engagement to maintain lines of communication and explore potential areas of cooperation.

Global Implications

The trajectory of US-China relations in Trump's first 100 days will have significant implications not just for the two countries, but for the entire world. Global supply chains, technological development, climate change efforts, and international security arrangements could all be affected by how this relationship evolves.

As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term, the future of US-China relations hangs in the balance. The first 100 days will be critical in setting the tone for the next four years. While Beijing will undoubtedly attempt to engage with the new administration and prevent a further downward spiral, the effectiveness of these efforts remains uncertain.

The complexity of issues at stake, coupled with Trump's unpredictable nature and the structural tensions between the two powers, suggests that a quick resolution is unlikely. Instead, we may see a period of cautious maneuvering as both sides assess each other's intentions and capabilities.

Ultimately, the ability to prevent a further deterioration in US-China ties will depend not just on Beijing's diplomatic efforts, but also on Trump's willingness to engage constructively and the broader geopolitical context. As the world watches closely, the actions taken in these first 100 days could shape the global landscape for years to come.