Trump’s tax cuts and their lasting impact

[UNITED STATES] The Trump administration’s 2017 tax reform, commonly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), promised significant tax relief for businesses and individuals, with the central message being that it would create a "big, beautiful bill" that would benefit the U.S. economy. Now, nearly eight years later, the impact of these tax cuts remains a hot topic in American political and economic discussions. This guide provides a detailed look at what tax cuts were implemented under the TCJA, which provisions have expired or been adjusted, and how they continue to shape the nation’s tax landscape today.

In December 2017, President Donald Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law, fulfilling one of his major campaign promises. The ambitious overhaul of the U.S. tax code was touted as delivering a “big, beautiful bill,” aimed at stimulating economic growth, creating jobs, and reducing the tax burden on American businesses and individuals. While some elements of the law have been highly debated, its impacts continue to reverberate in U.S. tax policy.

As we look back at nearly eight years of the TCJA, it’s important to break down which aspects of the tax cuts have been successful, which provisions have expired, and how ongoing policy changes are shaping the tax system today.

What Was Promised: The Main Elements of Trump’s Tax Cuts

1. Corporate Tax Rate Reduction

One of the most significant elements of the TCJA was the reduction in the corporate tax rate, from 35% to 21%. This was presented as a way to make U.S. companies more competitive globally and encourage domestic investment. For many corporations, this cut delivered immediate benefits, as companies gained access to more capital for expansion, research, and development.

Impact: The tax reduction resulted in record buybacks and an increase in dividends paid to shareholders. However, critics argue that these benefits were not always passed down to workers in the form of higher wages or job growth.

2. Individual Tax Cuts

The TCJA also included significant tax cuts for individuals, reducing tax rates across various income brackets. For example, the top individual tax rate was lowered from 39.6% to 37%, while the standard deduction was nearly doubled.

Impact: For many middle-income families, the tax cuts resulted in higher take-home pay. However, the cuts were temporary, with many of them set to expire after 2025 unless extended.

3. Repeal of the Individual Mandate

One of the more contentious elements of the TCJA was the repeal of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) individual mandate. This provision eliminated the penalty that individuals were required to pay if they did not have health insurance.

Impact: The removal of the individual mandate sparked a wide-ranging debate about healthcare policy in the U.S. Some saw it as a victory for individual freedom, while others feared it would lead to higher healthcare premiums.

4. Changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

The TCJA raised the income thresholds for the AMT, which is designed to ensure that high-income individuals and corporations pay at least a minimum amount of tax. By raising these thresholds, the number of taxpayers subject to the AMT was reduced significantly.

Impact: This change benefitted high-income earners and large corporations but also simplified tax filings for many taxpayers who had previously been subject to the AMT.

5. Deduction Limits on State and Local Taxes (SALT)

The TCJA capped the deduction for state and local taxes at $10,000. This provision particularly impacted residents of high-tax states, such as California, New York, and New Jersey.

Impact: The SALT cap became a point of contention, with critics arguing that it disproportionately affected residents in blue states, and that it undermined the financial autonomy of state and local governments.

What Has Changed: Expired Provisions and Adjustments

As the TCJA was enacted with temporary cuts for individual taxpayers, several of its provisions are set to expire by 2025, and some have already undergone adjustments in subsequent legislative sessions.

1. Temporary Nature of Individual Tax Cuts

The individual tax cuts were designed to expire after 2025, while corporate tax cuts are permanent. This means that, unless Congress acts to extend or make these cuts permanent, Americans may see a significant increase in their tax burdens after this expiration.

Impact: Taxpayers in the lower and middle brackets are especially concerned about what their future tax bills may look like after 2025, with some forecasting a return to pre-2017 rates.

2. International Tax Reforms

The TCJA introduced a "territorial tax system," which aimed to encourage U.S. corporations to repatriate profits held overseas. The law also created new rules for taxation of foreign income.

Impact: While some companies did repatriate profits, others simply took advantage of tax havens or used the new tax rules to shift profits overseas. There has been ongoing debate about whether these provisions have succeeded in spurring significant domestic investment.

3. Expiring Deductions for Businesses

Certain business deductions, such as the ability to fully deduct interest expenses, were also part of the TCJA, but these were scheduled to expire or phase out over time. Some industry leaders are pushing for these provisions to be extended, arguing that they help businesses make long-term investments.

Impact: The expiration of these deductions could raise costs for businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like manufacturing.

The Ongoing Debate: Is the Tax Cut a Success?

The lasting debate surrounding the TCJA centers on its economic impact. Proponents argue that the tax cuts led to a surge in stock market growth, higher corporate profits, and a low unemployment rate before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, critics contend that the tax cuts disproportionately benefited the wealthy and contributed to a growing federal deficit.

Fiscal Concerns: The TCJA contributed to an increase in the national debt, with critics arguing that the short-term benefits did not justify the long-term fiscal strain. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that the TCJA will add approximately $1.9 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

Economic Growth vs. Inequality: While the tax cuts spurred short-term economic growth, the distribution of benefits remains a contentious issue. Many lower-income families did not see the same level of benefit as wealthier individuals and large corporations. The expansion of inequality has led some policymakers to advocate for tax reform that better targets middle- and lower-income Americans.

Looking Ahead: Potential Reforms and Future Legislation

As the expiration of several key provisions of the TCJA approaches, the future of U.S. tax policy remains uncertain. Lawmakers will face significant decisions about whether to extend the individual tax cuts, repeal the SALT cap, or overhaul the tax system to address mounting fiscal challenges.

Tax reform is likely to be a central issue in future elections, with both Democrats and Republicans offering competing visions for how the tax system should function. Proposals for new taxes on wealth, changes to capital gains taxation, and efforts to simplify the tax code are already being discussed.

The Trump-era tax cuts undoubtedly reshaped the U.S. tax landscape, delivering immediate benefits for businesses and certain segments of the population. However, as the provisions begin to expire and new political pressures emerge, the full impact of the TCJA will continue to unfold in the years to come. Whether it is ultimately seen as a triumph or a costly misstep will depend largely on the broader economic outcomes and the ability of lawmakers to address the resulting fiscal challenges.