There is a strong risk that average warming will exceed 1.5°C in the next four years

[WORLD] If you’ve heard about the latest UN climate warnings and wondered what it means for the planet—and for you—this guide will break it down. You’ll learn why scientists are sounding the alarm about global temperatures likely exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, what that means for weather, economies, and daily life, and why every fraction of a degree counts. We’ll demystify the science, explain the forecasts, and show how this global challenge connects to your world.

What Is the 1.5°C Warming Threshold?

The 1.5°C threshold refers to the internationally agreed goal—set in the 2015 Paris Agreement—to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, ideally aiming for 1.5°C. This benchmark is measured against the average global temperature from 1850–1900, before widespread industrial burning of coal, oil, and gas began pumping large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere.

Why 1.5°C?

Scientists warn that warming beyond this point increases the risk of catastrophic climate impacts, including more extreme weather, sea level rise, and ecosystem collapse. The 1.5°C target is not arbitrary: it’s a scientifically informed line in the sand designed to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

The Latest Forecasts: Where We Stand Now

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 70% chance that average global temperatures from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. This comes after the two hottest years on record (2023 and 2024), and the WMO warns that “there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet”.

Key Projections:

2025–2029: Global mean near-surface temperature is expected to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.

Record Heat: There is an 80% chance that at least one year in this period will be warmer than 2024, the current hottest year on record.

2°C Warming: There is a 1% chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming—a possibility that was “effectively impossible just a few years ago”.

Why Is the World Warming So Fast?

Human activities—primarily burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) and deforestation—are the main drivers of global warming. These activities release greenhouse gases (especially CO₂) that trap heat in the atmosphere, much like a blanket traps body heat.

The Blanket Analogy:

Imagine Earth is a person sleeping under blankets. As you add more blankets (greenhouse gases), the sleeper (Earth) gets warmer. If you keep adding more blankets, the sleeper overheats. That’s what’s happening to our planet as greenhouse gas concentrations reach record highs.

The Impacts: What Happens If We Exceed 1.5°C?

Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, even temporarily, can have serious and lasting effects:

More Extreme Weather: Heatwaves, droughts, floods, and storms become more frequent and intense. For example, the summer of 2024 was the hottest on record globally, with devastating wildfires, floods, and heatwaves.

Health Risks: Heat-related illnesses and deaths increase. Floods and droughts threaten water quality and food security.

Ecosystem Collapse: Coral reefs, Arctic ice, and mountain glaciers face irreversible damage. Species extinction rates could double at 2°C compared to 1.5°C.

Economic Costs: Damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and supply chains can cost billions. For example, climate disasters cost North America $415 billion in just three years.

Sea Level Rise: Melting ice caps and glaciers contribute to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities.

Real-World Examples:

2024 Wildfires: Over 370,000 hectares of forest destroyed in Europe alone.

2024 Floods: Two million people affected in Central Europe; 230 killed in Valencia.

2024 Heatwaves: China, UAE, and Pakistan experienced record-breaking temperatures and deadly conditions.

How Are Scientists Measuring and Predicting Warming?

There are different ways to assess global warming:

Short-Term (Annual): Measures temperature changes year by year.

Medium-Term (5-Year Average): Used by the WMO to smooth out year-to-year variability.

Long-Term (20-Year Average): Combines past observations with future projections to assess whether the 1.5°C threshold has been breached on a sustained basis.

Current Estimates:

Copernicus (EU): Current warming is about 1.39°C, projected to reach 1.5°C by mid-2029 or sooner.

WMO (Combined Method): Estimated current warming is 1.44°C.

Can We Still Avoid the Worst Impacts?

The 1.5°C target is increasingly seen as out of reach by many scientists, as CO₂ emissions continue to rise. However, every fraction of a degree matters. Even if we temporarily exceed 1.5°C, reducing emissions quickly can limit the duration and severity of overshooting the threshold.

What Needs to Happen?

Rapid Emissions Cuts: Transition to clean energy, phase out fossil fuels, and protect forests.

Adaptation: Prepare for more extreme weather and rising seas.

Global Cooperation: Strengthen international agreements and climate policies.

FAQ & Myth-Busting

Q: Is climate change natural?

A: The Earth does experience natural climate cycles, but the rapid warming since 1950 is overwhelmingly due to human activities, especially burning fossil fuels.

Q: Why do some places still get cold winters if the planet is warming?

A: Global warming refers to the long-term trend. Local weather can still bring cold spells, but overall, the planet is getting hotter.

Q: Will overshooting 1.5°C cause irreversible damage?

A: Temporary overshoots can trigger irreversible changes, such as melting ice sheets and species extinctions, especially if warming is prolonged.

Q: Is it too late to act?

A: No. Every reduction in emissions helps limit future warming and its impacts.

Q: How do we know the forecasts are accurate?

A: Forecasts are based on data from multiple global centers and validated against past observations. The probability of exceeding 1.5°C has increased as models and data improve.

Why This Matters

The warning that global temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold is more than a scientific milestone—it’s a call to action for everyone. The impacts of climate change are already here, shaping economies, health, and daily life in ways that touch us all. While the challenge is daunting, understanding the science and the stakes empowers us to make informed choices, advocate for change, and adapt to a warming world. The decisions we make today will determine the climate legacy we leave for future generations. Every fraction of a degree matters, and every action counts.