[WORLD] Forecasting any nation’s foreign policy behavior is inherently difficult. The task becomes even more complex when dealing with a country like China, where political transparency is limited. Analysts are left to piece together signals—rhetorical nuances from leadership speeches, insights from those on the ground, and a mix of informed theories and interpretive biases.
Extensive attention has been paid to China’s strategic capabilities and geopolitical posture. Much has been written about concepts like the Thucydides Trap, “peak power,” and the controversial Project 2025, which posits that China’s challenge to the international order stems not merely from Communist ideology but from a deeply ingrained strategic culture. This argument suggests that internal reforms or civil society alone are unlikely to reshape China into a more normatively aligned global actor.
What has received comparatively less scrutiny is the question of what China actually wants.
China’s modern foreign policy outlook is deeply influenced by its historical narrative—particularly the so-called “century of humiliation” in the 19th and early 20th centuries. During this period, China endured foreign invasions and a series of unequal treaties that eroded its sovereignty and stature. The desire to overcome this past and reclaim its place as a global power remains a fundamental driver of its contemporary international posture.
Since the launch of economic reforms in the late 20th century, China has experienced rapid growth and steadily expanding global influence. This ascent has required a delicate balancing act—promoting national development while managing often-complicated ties with other powers. In its early reform years, for example, China’s reliance on foreign capital and technological expertise necessitated constructive engagement with the West.
In recent years, China has framed its external engagement around the principle of “peaceful development,” emphasizing non-aggression and cooperative diplomacy. Yet, this narrative has come under scrutiny, particularly in light of China’s increasing military capabilities and assertive actions in territorial disputes such as those in the South China Sea. These moves have led critics to question whether Beijing’s actions align with its stated commitment to peace.
At the same time, China’s strategic behavior is informed by long-standing philosophical and cultural frameworks. Concepts like “harmony” and the vision of a “community of shared future for mankind” frequently appear in official rhetoric. These ideas underpin a vision for a multipolar world order based on inclusivity and cooperation rather than domination by any single power. Still, turning these abstract ideals into consistent foreign policy practices remains an ongoing and complex endeavor.
Ultimately, while much has been said about China’s means, less effort has been made to understand its ends.
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