Trump’s trade gambit risks backfire

[WORLD] When President Donald Trump launched sweeping tariffs under the banner of “Liberation Day,” he echoed a long tradition of leaders who believe that bold, aggressive moves secure lasting advantage. But as historian John Lewis Gaddis reminds us in On Grand Strategy, big ambitions carry big risks—and often overlook the operational complexities that can undo them. Nearly two months into Trump’s global trade battles, the results are decidedly underwhelming: a temporary truce with China, a partial agreement with the U.K., and mounting tensions with key allies. The question now is whether this approach builds American power—or exposes its vulnerabilities.

The Mirage of Quick Victories

Trump’s trade offensive was designed for spectacle: sweeping tariffs, aggressive rhetoric, and promises to remake global trade in America’s favor. Yet, the real-world returns have been modest. Negotiations with China yielded only a temporary 90-day freeze, not a structural reset. Talks with the United Kingdom have produced partial agreements, but much remains unresolved. Meanwhile, the European Union, Canada, and other major partners remain locked in retaliatory measures, dampening U.S. exports and straining diplomatic ties. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows trade deficits have barely budged, undercutting one of Trump’s core arguments for these policies.

Big Risks, Limited Rewards

Like Xerxes, Trump seems more focused on grand gestures than on the logistical realities behind them. Tariffs may sound tough, but they ripple unpredictably through supply chains, raising input costs for U.S. manufacturers and hurting American farmers reliant on foreign markets. The IMF estimates that global trade tensions shaved 0.8% off world GDP growth in the past year, hitting not only China and Europe but also U.S. economic momentum. Markets initially rallied on hopes of breakthroughs, but volatility has returned as investors realize these conflicts may drag on without clear resolution.

A Strategy That Unites Rivals

Perhaps the most underappreciated consequence of Trump’s approach is how it has pushed America’s rivals closer together. China and the EU, once wary of aligning too closely, have intensified discussions on trade cooperation. Canada and Mexico, though renegotiating NAFTA, have also strengthened economic ties with Europe. Much as Xerxes’ invasion helped consolidate Greek unity, Trump’s trade confrontations risk creating alliances of convenience among America’s competitors. While Trump touts “America First,” the long-term result may be a more coordinated challenge to U.S. economic leadership.

What We Think

Trump’s tariff-heavy trade strategy may play well to domestic political audiences, but it lacks the operational depth required for lasting success. History reminds us that bold moves, without careful groundwork, often fail—sometimes spectacularly. The administration’s fixation on short-term deals and headline wins ignores the structural shifts reshaping global trade, from digital economies to cross-border investment flows. Without a coherent long-term vision, Trump’s gambit risks backfiring, leaving the U.S. economically sidelined and diplomatically weakened. Big dangers, as Xerxes learned, don’t always yield big victories.