A potential dockworker strike at ports from Massachusetts to Texas could disrupt supply chains and boost prices on a wide range of consumer goods—just as the holiday shipping season approaches.
Members of the International Longshoremen's Association, a union that represents 85,000 dockworkers, want to strike on Tuesday if they cannot reach an agreement on a new contract with the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents major shipping lines. A walkout would be the first East Coast port strike in the United States since 1977.
The looming strike has sent shockwaves through the maritime industry and beyond, with stakeholders scrambling to prepare for potential disruptions. Labor negotiations have been ongoing for months, with key issues including automation, job security, and wage increases. The union argues that workers deserve better compensation and protections in light of record profits made by shipping companies during the pandemic. Meanwhile, employers contend that they need flexibility to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving global market.
A strike would shut down container operations in 14 ports ranging from Boston to Houston. Last year, these ports handled more than 68% of all containerized imports from the United States.
The potential impact of the strike extends far beyond the immediate vicinity of the ports. Inland transportation networks, including trucking and rail, are bracing for significant disruptions as cargo movement grinds to a halt. Warehouses and distribution centers across the country are likely to face inventory shortages, potentially leading to production slowdowns in various industries. The ripple effects could be felt throughout the entire supply chain, from manufacturers to retailers to end consumers.
Here are some of the ways a strike could harm the US economy.
Shipping Delays
The most immediate impact would be that products would no longer be unloaded at the impacted ports. Even if the strike only lasted a few days, the ripple effect would endure for weeks or months.
In addition to costing the US economy up to $5 billion per day—a run rate equivalent to 6% of the US annual GDP—transportation analysts at J.P. Morgan said Thursday in a research note that major shipper and logistics company Maersk has estimated that it would take four to six weeks to work through shipping backlogs for each week the ports are closed.
That could have far-reaching consequences for businesses and customers looking forward to the holiday shopping season, which accounts for one-fifth of total annual retail sales income in the United States.
"For retailers, that means holiday shipments might not arrive on time," the National Retail Federation warned earlier this month.
Some retailers are preparing to defend against a potential shutdown. On a conference call following the business's earnings release on Thursday, Costco CEO Roland Vachris stated that the company is pre-shipping in anticipation of a strike.
"We've been paying careful attention to the port strike for quite some time. We've done everything we can to get holiday goods in ahead of this timeframe, and we've looked at alternative plans for moving goods to different ports and across the country if necessary," Vachris said on the call, a transcript of which is available through AlphaSense.
As the strike deadline approaches, government officials and industry leaders are working tirelessly to facilitate negotiations and prevent a work stoppage. The Biden administration has expressed concern about the potential economic fallout and is reportedly considering intervention options, including the possibility of invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to force workers back to their jobs if a strike occurs. However, such a move would likely face strong opposition from labor unions and could have political ramifications.
Rising Prices
A strike on Tuesday would come just two weeks after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time since the outbreak. The Fed's decision corresponded with a slowing in inflation. Its preferred consumer inflation gauge decreased 2.2% in August, marking the lowest level in three and a half years.
However, a lengthy strike might force prices higher once more, perhaps impeding the Fed's rate-cutting plan. The ports that could stop on Tuesday have not shut down for a strike since October 1977. The strike lasted 44 days.
Similar to this year, monthly inflation rates fell during the summer and early fall. However, following the strike, inflation rose 0.5% in November from the previous month, marking the first year-on-year increase in six months.
A port strike would most certainly increase global freight rates, which have been in decline for some time. At least in the near run, this would benefit shippers while increasing expenses for their clients and consumers.
"Recent freight rate recessions have ended suddenly when a disruption shocked the market," JP Morgan stated in a recent research note on dockworker labor negotiations. "A potential ILA strike could be a catalyst to end the current malaise."
The potential strike has also reignited debates about the vulnerability of global supply chains and the need for greater resilience. Some experts argue that the situation highlights the risks of over-reliance on a small number of major ports and the importance of developing alternative transportation routes. Others point to the need for increased investment in port infrastructure and technology to improve efficiency and reduce the likelihood of future disruptions. As the deadline approaches, businesses and policymakers alike are closely watching developments, aware that the outcome of this labor dispute could have far-reaching implications for the US economy and global trade patterns.
Supply Shortages
The number of commodities passing through ports along the East and Gulf coasts implies that consumers and businesses may encounter supply shortages ranging from electrical equipment to footwear.
Cars and vehicle parts rank toward the top of the list. European-made autos are often shipped through East Coast ports; no US port handles more passenger vehicle imports than the Port of Baltimore.
At the other end of the pricing spectrum, purchasers of cheap produce should beware: Approximately 75% of all bananas imported into the United States arrive through East or Gulf Coast ports. If a strike breaks out, consumers may be forced to go without them.
In a recent social media post, Jason Miller, a supply chain professor at Michigan State University, stated that transferring banana imports to West Coast ports or transporting them on planes is not economically possible, adding that "you can't frontload a perishable product."
