Russia rises amid trade turmoil

[WORLD] As the U.S.-China trade war intensifies, Russia stands to benefit from the shifting global trade dynamics. With the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and China retaliating, Moscow is positioning itself to fill the void in energy supplies, technology, and trade routes, potentially altering the balance of power in global commerce.

The escalating trade tensions between the United States and China have disrupted established supply chains and trade routes. In this shifting landscape, Russia is emerging as a strategic player, leveraging its vast energy resources, technological capabilities, and geographical position to capitalize on the evolving trade dynamics.

Energy Trade: A Strategic Advantage

In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record high of $237 billion, with energy exports playing a pivotal role. Russia has become China's primary supplier of crude oil and natural gas, with imports of Russian LNG increasing by 3.3% to 8.3 million metric tons in 2024. The Power of Siberia pipeline, designed to transport 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia’s Yamal region to China via Mongolia, is expected to further enhance this energy partnership.

The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, including LNG, prompting China to seek alternative sources. In March 2025, China ceased imports of U.S. LNG, turning to Russian suppliers to meet its energy needs . This shift not only benefits Russia economically but also strengthens its geopolitical influence over China.​

Technology and Trade Routes: Expanding Influence

Beyond energy, Russia is expanding its technological and trade ties with China. In December 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government and Sberbank to collaborate with China on artificial intelligence research and development. This partnership aims to enhance Russia's technological capabilities and reduce dependence on Western technologies.

Additionally, Russia's strategic location offers alternative trade routes for goods affected by U.S.-China tariffs. The Northern Sea Route, traversing Russia's Arctic coast, provides a shorter path for shipping between Europe and Asia, potentially reducing shipping costs and time .​

Economic Implications: Navigating Sanctions and Tariffs

While Russia stands to gain from the U.S.-China trade tensions, it also faces challenges. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russian energy companies, including Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, targeting key sectors of the Russian economy . These sanctions aim to curb Russia's revenue streams and limit its ability to finance military operations.

In response, Russia is diversifying its trade partnerships, increasing economic cooperation with countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa. This diversification strategy aims to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and reduce reliance on any single market.

Geopolitical Dynamics: Balancing Relations

Russia's growing ties with China have raised concerns in Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed apprehension about the strengthening Russia-China relationship, stating that it could create problems for the United States . However, Russia has emphasized its intent to balance relations with both the U.S. and China, seeking to avoid aligning exclusively with one power.

As the U.S.-China trade war reshapes global trade dynamics, Russia is strategically positioning itself to benefit from the shifting landscape. By leveraging its energy resources, technological collaborations, and alternative trade routes, Russia aims to enhance its economic standing and geopolitical influence. However, navigating the complexities of international sanctions and balancing relations with both the U.S. and China will be crucial for Russia's success in this new era of global trade.​