Companies are trying to fill industrial roles, let alone prepare for what Trump's government has in mind

[UNITED STATES] The push to revive American manufacturing faces significant obstacles beyond the imposition of tariffs. Despite political promises and policy efforts, the sector is grappling with a persistent skills gap, an aging workforce, and outdated public perceptions of what manufacturing jobs entail. Experts note that even as companies struggle to fill hundreds of thousands of open positions each month, the pace of technological change is outstripping the ability of training programs to keep up.

A recent report from the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte projects that the industry could require as many as 3.8 million new employees over the next decade, with up to half of those roles potentially remaining vacant if the skills shortage is not addressed. More than 65% of manufacturers cite recruiting and retaining talent as their top business challenge, and there is a growing need for workers with expertise in digital skills, cybersecurity, and data management.

While former President Trump has centered his economic platform on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. through tariffs, many analysts remain skeptical. They argue that global cost structures, entrenched industry clusters abroad, and the high cost of domestic labor make it unlikely that tariffs alone will trigger a large-scale resurgence in American manufacturing employment.

Implications

For businesses, the persistent skills gap means that simply reshoring production will not resolve labor shortages or cost challenges. Companies may need to invest more heavily in workforce development, automation, and partnerships with educational institutions to build the talent pipelines required for modern manufacturing.

Consumers are unlikely to see the promised benefits of lower prices or greater product availability if labor shortages and higher domestic costs persist. In fact, tariffs could lead to higher prices for goods, as companies pass increased production costs on to buyers. The mismatch between political rhetoric and economic realities may also erode public trust in policy solutions that focus narrowly on tariffs.

For public policy, the findings highlight the need to broaden the conversation beyond manufacturing. As one expert notes, the real issue is the lack of good jobs for workers without college degrees—a challenge that extends into sectors like healthcare, construction, and IT. Policymakers may need to prioritize technical education, apprenticeships, and support for a wider range of middle-skill careers rather than focusing exclusively on manufacturing.

What we think

The debate over the future of American manufacturing reveals deeper structural issues in the U.S. labor market. While the symbolism of "bringing back factories" resonates politically, the reality is that technology, demographics, and global competition have fundamentally changed the landscape. Efforts to revive manufacturing must be coupled with robust investment in workforce development and a reevaluation of what constitutes a "good job" in today's economy.

It is clear that tariffs alone are insufficient to overcome the sector's challenges. The skills gap is not just a pipeline problem but also a perception issue—modern manufacturing requires a new generation of workers with digital and technical expertise. Encouraging alternative pathways to well-paying jobs, including technical training and apprenticeships, may yield broader benefits than a singular focus on manufacturing.

Ultimately, the U.S. economy will be best served by policies that support a diverse array of middle-skill careers, adapt to technological change, and invest in lifelong learning. Manufacturing can play a role, but it should be seen as one option among many for building a resilient and inclusive workforce. As one expert put it, "manufacturing is just one of many options" for those seeking stable, well-compensated work without a four-year degree.