If you’ve ever opened your investing app after a Trump speech or tariff tweet, you know the feeling: a sea of red, your portfolio blinking like a warning sign, and your gut saying, “Should I pull out?”
But here’s what might surprise you: the actual S&P 500 return during Trump’s second term, even with all the noise, has been a positive 1.58% annualized. Not amazing, but not disaster either.
Between January and early June, the index dipped more than 1% on 18 separate days—and more than 2% on six of them. That’s a lot of red candles. But step back, and the overall line still slants up. This is the paradox of investing in real time: volatility feels like failure when you're inside it, but zoomed out, it’s just part of the game.
Here’s some real talk: every presidency brings swings. What’s different now is how visible those swings are. Gen Z doesn’t wait for quarterly reports or cable news—we get real-time alerts, trading memes, and TikToks from panicking influencers.
But if you measure by returns, Trump’s second term isn’t even close to the extremes. Biden’s first few months? A blazing +34%. Obama? +30% early on. George W. Bush? Rough –12% in his first half-year.
The point? Markets move. Presidents don’t define your wealth. Your reaction to volatility does. Volatility is the price of admission. The market goes up over time, but it never goes up in a straight line.
Let’s break it down. Volatility is a measure of how wildly an asset’s price swings in a short period. More swings = more volatility. But that doesn’t mean it's “bad.” It means unpredictable.
It’s like this:
- High volatility = a nightclub with flashing lights, loud beats, and random dance battles.
- Low volatility = a coffee shop on a weekday morning. Still moving, but chill.
Markets during Trump’s second term? Somewhere between rave and rollercoaster. But the music didn’t stop.
Volatility spikes when there’s uncertainty—like trade wars, rate changes, or employment shocks. But here’s the truth: volatility doesn’t tell you where the market’s going. It just tells you it’s going somewhere fast.
Here’s where most people mess up. They see red, freak out, and sell. Or they buy when they feel FOMO—and get hit on the pullback. Volatility tricks your brain. It makes short-term pain feel like long-term loss. That’s not just a feeling. That’s behavioral finance 101. And most of us—especially newer Gen Z investors—are wired for reaction, not resilience. We grew up with:
- Instant news cycles
- Social comparison feeds
- App interfaces that turn money into dopamine
So when the market gets shaky, we don’t just feel uncertainty. We act on it. That’s the trap. Cathy Curtis, a planner who’s seen multiple cycles, says it best: “Volatility doesn’t predict direction.” It just punishes the impatient.
Let’s look at numbers, not just vibes. Morningstar ran the math: If you had invested $1,000 into the S&P 500 in 1950—through wars, recessions, inflation, and yes, Trump—you’d have $3.8 million today.
No perfect entry points. No lucky trades. Just staying put. Why? Because compound growth loves time. And the longer you’re in the market, the less any one president or panic attack matters.
Mark Motley, a portfolio manager, notes that almost every presidency since Jimmy Carter saw strong market returns. The one big exception? George W. Bush, because of the 2008 financial crisis. So if you’re 24 and stressing over your ETF balance? Zoom out. You’ve got decades of compound returns ahead—if you let them happen.
You’re probably not managing a hedge fund. You’re using GCash, eToro, Robinhood, or StashAway. Maybe some crypto. Maybe a robo-advisor. Maybe just auto-investing $50 a week.
That’s good. Because for most Gen Z investors, the system matters more than the stock. The key is behavioral consistency. Here’s how to build it:
- Auto-contribute: Whether it’s through your bank app, an ETF platform, or a robo-advisor, automate your deposits. Don’t make it a monthly decision.
- Diversify without overthinking: A simple S&P 500 index fund or global equity basket will do the job. Don’t chase shiny coins unless you understand the downside.
- Mute the noise: Unfollow fearmongers. Stop panic-refreshing your app. Set alerts for rebalancing, not vibes.
- Keep your horizon long: You’re not investing for next year’s vacation. You’re building wealth for 2045.
Things that feel important but aren’t:
- Daily market swings
- Presidential tweets
- TikTok “market crash” clips
- 1-month returns
- That one friend who “sold everything”
Things that actually matter:
- Expense ratios
- Time in the market
- Diversification
- Emotional detachment
- How much you’re investing regularly
Volatility can mess with your mood. But your money needs better management than your feed.
Trump’s market has been chaotic—but not historically bad. And it’s taught us a lesson Gen Z investors need to hear loud and clear:
Volatility isn’t the risk. Your reaction to it is. If you flinch every time the market twitches, you’re playing the wrong game. The goal isn’t to win the week. It’s to survive the decades.
So here’s the move:
- Don’t play politics with your portfolio
- Automate your behavior
- Pick boring, proven tools
- Sit through the storms
Because honestly? Market noise is eternal. But emotional discipline? That’s the rarest asset in your stack.
Everyone wants returns. But the ones who get them aren’t the loudest or the smartest. They’re the calmest. You don’t need perfect timing. You need systems that keep you in the game. So yes—Trump-era markets have been volatile. But if you’re investing right, it shouldn’t change your plan.
Because the best response to chaos isn’t control. It’s consistency.
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