Oil prices surge on Trump Iran sanctions threat

[WORLD] Oil prices surged nearly 2% on Thursday after former U.S. President Donald Trump issued a sweeping threat to impose new secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Iranian oil, escalating tensions in global energy markets and reigniting geopolitical uncertainty. The move comes on the heels of postponed nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, further clouding the outlook for Middle East stability and global oil supply.

The escalation marks a return to hardline tactics that could have ripple effects beyond the energy sector. Financial institutions, shipping companies, and insurers involved in the oil trade are likely to face heightened scrutiny, potentially chilling global trade flows linked to Iranian energy. In past rounds of sanctions, major European firms withdrew from Iran to avoid U.S. penalties, and similar patterns could reemerge as multinationals assess their exposure.

Background: The “Maximum Pressure” Campaign

Since his 2016 election, Trump has pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran, aiming to curtail its oil exports and limit its ability to fund regional proxies. In 2018, the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions, causing Iranian oil exports to plunge as low as 200,000 barrels per day in 2020. However, exports rebounded under President Joe Biden, reaching about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2023, with China as the primary buyer.

Trump’s latest threat appears aimed at China, which the U.S. State Department identifies as “by far the largest importer of Iranian oil,” with imports estimated at 1.6 million barrels per day. The new sanctions would target not only state actors but also private companies and individuals involved in the Iranian oil trade.

Diplomatic channels are already showing signs of strain. European Union officials have expressed concern over the abrupt policy shift, warning that unilateral measures could undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts and push Iran further away from compliance with international nuclear obligations. France and Germany have both urged restraint, calling for renewed dialogue rather than punitive action.

Market Impact and Industry Response

The prospect of tighter sanctions and a potential reduction of up to 1.5 million barrels per day in global supply has rattled energy markets. Analysts warn that a sudden removal of Iranian crude could drive prices higher, exacerbate inflation, and strain economies dependent on oil imports.

“If the Trump administration is successful in enforcing secondary sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil, that could lead to a reduction in supply of about a million and a half barrels per day,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

Despite the price spike, broader market sentiment remains cautious. Oil remains on track for a weekly loss of over 5%, pressured by concerns over global demand, a recent contraction in U.S. GDP, and China’s worst factory slump in two years. OPEC+ is also signaling a willingness to increase production, with Saudi Arabia indicating it can tolerate lower prices and may push for higher output at the upcoming May meeting.

OPEC and Geopolitical Dynamics

OPEC’s response will be pivotal. The organization has historically adjusted output to offset supply disruptions, but Iran’s current rotating presidency of OPEC could complicate efforts to present a unified front. Iranian officials are calling for OPEC unity to resist what they describe as “unilateral U.S. sanctions,” warning that politicizing the oil market could destabilize global energy security.

Saudi Arabia’s position may become increasingly influential as the kingdom balances its alliance with Washington and its leadership role within OPEC. Riyadh has so far maintained a cautious silence, but analysts believe any overt support for U.S. sanctions could trigger internal divisions within the oil cartel. Conversely, if Saudi Arabia advocates for a production hike to stabilize markets, it could dilute the impact of reduced Iranian exports.

Recent months have seen OPEC members rally behind Iran, challenging U.S. dominance in global oil markets and setting a precedent for collective resistance to foreign economic pressure. This stance could reshape global trade dynamics and encourage other nations to adopt similar strategies in future economic conflicts.

China’s Calculus

China’s role is central. While official customs data often report zero Iranian oil imports, analysts note that Iranian crude continues to reach Chinese “teapot” refineries through indirect routes, including Malaysia, Oman, and the UAE. These smaller operators have minimal exposure to the U.S. financial system, making them less vulnerable to secondary sanctions.

China’s strategic interests and opposition to U.S. unilateralism suggest it will not fully abandon Iranian crude, especially given the economic incentives of discounted oil. The effectiveness of U.S. sanctions will hinge on China’s willingness to comply and Iran’s ability to adapt through alternative trade mechanisms.

Meanwhile, Iran has been stepping up efforts to strengthen its energy ties with other Asian markets. India, once a major buyer of Iranian oil, has shown renewed interest in resuming imports, provided a mechanism can be developed to bypass U.S. sanctions. Tehran is also exploring barter arrangements and cryptocurrency-based transactions to maintain revenue flows and sidestep restrictions on traditional banking channels.

Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead

The renewed threat of U.S. sanctions injects fresh uncertainty into global energy markets. While the immediate effect has been a sharp rise in oil prices, the longer-term impact will depend on enforcement, OPEC’s response, and the actions of major importers like China.

Some analysts caution that the current environment differs from 2019, when similar sanctions led to a sharp drop in Iranian exports and higher prices. Today, alternative supply channels, OPEC’s production flexibility, and shifting geopolitical alliances may blunt the impact of new sanctions.

Investors are also watching how U.S. domestic politics might influence future enforcement. With the 2024 presidential race intensifying, any shift in administration could again reshape Washington’s approach to Iran. Markets are bracing for potential volatility driven not only by policy announcements, but also by campaign rhetoric and electoral outcomes.

As oil prices react to the latest U.S. policy shift, the world’s energy markets face renewed volatility. The interplay between U.S. sanctions, OPEC unity, and China’s import strategy will shape not only the price of oil but also the broader contours of global economic and diplomatic relations in the months ahead.