Israel reports progress in Lebanon ceasefire negotiations

[MIDDLE EAST] Gideon Saar, Israel's foreign minister, claimed on Monday that "certain progress" had been achieved in cease-fire talks in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting Hezbollah for almost 13 months.

"We will be ready to be there if we know, first of all, that Hezbollah is not on our border, is north of the Litani River, and that Hezbollah will not be able to arm with new weapons systems," said Saar.

He noted that diplomatic efforts were underway through US mediation, but that the absence of an enforcement mechanism in any future agreement remained a stumbling point.

The ongoing negotiations have sparked cautious optimism among regional observers, who see this as a potential breakthrough in the long-standing tensions between Israel and Lebanon. However, experts warn that significant challenges remain, particularly in addressing the complex web of geopolitical interests in the region. The involvement of multiple international actors, including the United States and Russia, underscores the global implications of achieving stability along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Israel's declared goal in its ground invasion of south Lebanon was to allow the return of northern Israeli civilians, tens of thousands of whom had been displaced since Hezbollah began shooting missiles "in solidarity" with Hamas on October 8, 2023.

Israel has stated that Hezbollah would need to retire north of the Litani, 18 miles from its northern border, in order to secure northern Israel's security.

The potential ceasefire agreement, if reached, could have far-reaching consequences for the region's stability. It may pave the way for increased economic cooperation between Israel and Lebanon, particularly in areas such as energy and water resources. Additionally, a successful resolution to this conflict could serve as a model for addressing other long-standing disputes in the Middle East, potentially shifting the dynamics of regional diplomacy.

Diplomatic attempts were not limited to US channels; Israel's army radio claimed that Israel's minister of strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, visited Russia last week to seek measures to achieve a cease-fire in Lebanon.

According to Saar, Russia might contribute to a ceasefire accord by ensuring that weapons do not travel to Hezbollah through Syria, where Russian forces are stationed.

Najib Mikati, Lebanon's interim prime minister, attended the Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh on Monday and spoke with a number of Arab leaders, including Jordan's King Abdullah II and Kuwait's crown prince.

The involvement of regional Arab leaders in the diplomatic process highlights the interconnected nature of Middle Eastern politics. Their participation could prove crucial in facilitating dialogue and ensuring that any agreement reached takes into account the broader regional context. This multilateral approach to conflict resolution reflects a growing recognition of the need for collaborative efforts to address complex security challenges in the region.

Despite reports of progress on a cease-fire agreement, Hezbollah has stated that it has not to receive a genuine proposal and does not anticipate to do so anytime soon.

Mohammad Afif, the head of Hezbollah's media office, stated during a news conference on Monday that "there is great movement between Washington, Moscow, Tehran, and a number of capitals."

"I believe that we are still in the phase of testing the waters and presenting initial ideas and proactive discussions, but so far there is nothing actual yet."

Any cease-fire in Lebanon would need to be accepted by Hezbollah and, most likely, its benefactor, Iran. Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's secretary general, has stated that the party is prepared for a ceasefire with Israel and has backed down from its prior demand for a ceasefire in Gaza before it ceases fighting.

The potential shift in Hezbollah's stance regarding ceasefire conditions marks a significant development in the negotiation process. This change could indicate a growing willingness among all parties to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. However, the intricate relationship between Hezbollah and Iran adds another layer of complexity to the negotiations, as any agreement would likely require Tehran's tacit approval.

Despite apparent progress on a cease-fire agreement, Israel's military said on Sunday that it will intensify its combat attack in southern Lebanon. Herzi Halevi, Israel's military chief, has approved the extension of the ground operation in southern Lebanon, which may entail thousands of additional regular and reserve soldiers, according to Israel's official broadcaster Kan.

Israel Katz, Israel's defense minister, stated on Sunday that Israel has vanquished Hezbollah and that additional progress might be made in Lebanon.

"Now it is our job to continue to put pressure in order to bring about the fruits of that victory," Katz told the crowd. He expressed optimism that Lebanon will join other nations in normalizing relations with Israel.

Israel stated that its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which began on September 30th, would be "limited and targeted" and intended at removing Hezbollah infrastructure in the area.

Since then, Israel has leveled large sections of southern Lebanon's border territory, destroying dozens of border communities in part or totally.

Hezbollah has apparently been fighting against advancing Israeli soldiers, with Afif, the head of its media office, stating on Monday that Israel has been unable to "occupy one single village" in 45 days of warfare.

The extent of Israel's progress in southern Lebanon is unknown, although Israeli troops and tanks have been spotted as far as two miles within the region.

Israel has murdered over 3,190 people and injured over 14,000 in Lebanon since the conflict began a year ago, with the great majority dying in the previous two months.

The humanitarian toll of the conflict underscores the urgent need for a ceasefire agreement. The extensive destruction in southern Lebanon and the high number of casualties have raised concerns among international humanitarian organizations. As negotiations progress, addressing the immediate needs of affected civilians and planning for long-term reconstruction efforts will likely become critical components of any comprehensive peace agreement.