Ceasefire claims deepen Gaza crisis

[MIDDLE EAST] Hamas’s reported acceptance of a U.S.-mediated ceasefire proposal has sparked a new wave of diplomatic confusion and hardened positions, as Israel and the United States swiftly dismissed the claims, leaving Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe unresolved and prospects for peace as elusive as ever.

Hamas Signals Ceasefire Readiness, But Doubts Swirl

In a dramatic development this week, Hamas announced its agreement to a ceasefire plan reportedly brokered by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff. The proposal, according to a Palestinian official close to the group, included a 70-day pause in hostilities, the release of ten Israeli hostages in two groups, and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. In return, Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian detainees, many serving lengthy sentences.

However, both Israeli and American officials quickly rejected the narrative. A U.S. source described the arrangement as “unacceptable” and “disappointing,” while Israeli representatives denied the proposal originated from Washington and insisted that no Israeli government could accept such terms. The conflicting accounts have fueled skepticism and highlighted the deep mistrust that continues to undermine mediation efforts.

Humanitarian Toll Mounts as Negotiations Stall

While diplomatic wrangling continues, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has intensified. Health authorities report that nearly 54,000 Palestinians have been killed since the conflict reignited following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, assault on southern Israel, which left 1,200 Israelis dead and 251 taken hostage. The vast majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced, with aid agencies warning of severe malnutrition and critical shortages of food, water, and medical supplies.

Recent Israeli offensives, including “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” have further devastated civilian infrastructure and overwhelmed the few remaining hospitals. Despite a brief easing of the blockade, humanitarian officials say that the trickle of aid reaching Gaza is woefully insufficient to meet the needs of the population.

Ceasefire Proposals: Points of Contention

The latest ceasefire discussions, mediated in Doha by Qatari and U.S. officials, have revolved around several key issues:

Hostage Releases: Hamas has offered to release groups of Israeli hostages in exchange for a truce and the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Duration and Terms: Proposals have ranged from 45 to 70-day pauses in fighting, with Hamas pushing for a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal, while Israel insists on only temporary halts and the dismantling of Hamas’s military capabilities.

Disarmament: Israel’s demand for Hamas to disarm remains a “red line” for the group, which has categorically rejected any such condition.

Governance of Gaza: Israel’s long-term plans reportedly involve eliminating Hamas’s rule and establishing a new administrative entity, possibly under initial Israeli military oversight. Hamas, meanwhile, has signaled willingness to transfer control to an interim government as part of a broader Arab League-backed reconstruction plan, but not at the cost of disarmament or exile of its leaders.

Political and Regional Reactions

The ceasefire claims have drawn mixed reactions across the region. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and Arab League leaders have called for an immediate and permanent ceasefire, emphasizing the urgent need for humanitarian access. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has advocated for a Palestinian Authority-led transition in Gaza, with Hamas relinquishing control and weapons as part of a two-state solution framework.

Within Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains steadfast in his refusal to end the conflict without the total dismantling of Hamas, reflecting a broader consensus among Israeli officials that any agreement leaving the group intact is unacceptable. This stance is echoed by right-wing elements in the government, who oppose both Palestinian statehood and the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza.

Hamas’s Position: Resilience or Desperation?

Despite the heavy toll inflicted by Israeli military operations, Hamas continues to assert its relevance and resilience. Analysts note, however, that the group’s military capabilities have been severely degraded, with thousands of fighters killed and its ability to govern or wage sustained warfare significantly diminished. Reports suggest that Hamas’s civilian administration is operating on a limited scale, and its claims of rapid recovery should be viewed with caution.

Yet, Hamas’s willingness to negotiate and its readiness to consider international reconstruction plans indicate both pragmatism and the pressures of a dire humanitarian situation. For many Palestinians in Gaza, any agreement that could halt the bombardment and alleviate starvation is seen as a lifeline.

The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Urgency

The latest round of ceasefire diplomacy underscores the profound challenges facing any resolution to the Gaza conflict. Mutual distrust, divergent objectives, and the scale of devastation have left both sides entrenched. As negotiations falter and the humanitarian crisis deepens, international actors face mounting pressure to broker a durable solution that addresses both security concerns and the urgent needs of Gaza’s civilian population.

For now, the prospect of a meaningful ceasefire remains clouded by competing narratives and intransigent positions. As one Gaza resident told Al Jazeera, “Palestinians are saying they do not have options left and they are just trying to survive the Israeli air strikes and the starvation that has been imposed on them”.