Palm oil output faces challenges as biodiesel demand grows

[MALAYSIA] In recent years, global palm oil output has encountered a significant slowdown, and a key driver behind this development is the surge in biodiesel demand. This change is reshaping the global palm oil market, affecting everything from cooking oil prices to environmental concerns. According to industry expert Dorab Mistry, “Those days of US$400-per-tonne discounts are gone,” signaling the end of the era of cheap palm oil. As Indonesia ramps up its biodiesel production, the global landscape for palm oil has shifted.

The Surge in Biodiesel Demand

The government of Indonesia has been at the forefront of increasing palm oil's use in biodiesel. This move is part of the nation's broader plan to reduce fuel imports. The mandatory biodiesel blend has increased to 40% this year, with ambitions to raise it to 50% by 2026. Additionally, Indonesia is exploring a 3% palm oil blend for jet fuel starting in 2026. As a result, the country’s palm oil exports are expected to fall, with forecasts predicting a reduction from 29.5 million tonnes in 2024 to just 20 million tonnes by 2030.

“The biodiesel push will reduce Indonesia’s exports to just 20 million tonnes in 2030,” said Eddy Martono, Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki). The shift towards biofuels is part of a broader strategy to curtail fuel imports, further driving up demand for palm oil.

Economic Impact: Rising Prices and Export Challenges

The increasing demand for biodiesel has directly impacted the palm oil market by reducing the supply available for export. As Indonesia prioritizes the use of palm oil for biodiesel production, the available palm oil for global markets shrinks, pushing prices upward. This shift is especially noticeable in India, the largest consumer of vegetable oils. Palm oil now commands a premium over rival soy oil, with prices rising sharply.

According to recent market data, Indian buyers were paying US$1,185 per tonne for crude palm oil (CPO) last week, a stark contrast to prices below US$500 just a few years ago. As Dorab Mistry explains, this price hike means that “palm oil won’t be that cheap again as long as Indonesia keeps prioritizing biodiesel.”

This increase in palm oil prices could have far-reaching implications, particularly in countries that heavily rely on vegetable oils. Governments worldwide may find themselves facing inflationary pressures as the cost of palm oil, and other oils such as soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oils, rises.

The Stagnation of Palm Oil Production

The supply of palm oil has also been affected by a slowdown in production, primarily due to environmental concerns and logistical challenges. Malaysia, one of the largest palm oil producers, has seen its production stagnate for over a decade. The lack of space for new plantations and the slow pace of replanting have constrained growth in Malaysia, while deforestation concerns in Indonesia have also hindered the expansion of new palm oil plantations.

Even in Indonesia, where production has been robust, replanting efforts by smallholders, who account for 40% of the country’s supply, have been slow. This has added to the challenges of meeting the growing global demand for palm oil while maintaining sustainability.

The Environmental and Social Costs

The surge in biodiesel production and the increasing demand for palm oil come with significant environmental and social costs. The palm oil industry has long been criticized for its role in deforestation, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia. Expanding plantations to meet both biodiesel and food demands often leads to the destruction of vital rainforests, which are home to endangered species like orangutans.

In addition to environmental issues, the palm oil sector faces increasing scrutiny over labor practices. Many workers in palm oil plantations endure harsh conditions, and the industry has been accused of using child labor in some regions. These concerns have prompted calls for more sustainable and ethical sourcing practices from both consumers and producers.

The Outlook for the Palm Oil Market

The outlook for the palm oil industry is shaped by a complex mix of factors, including growing biodiesel demand, environmental sustainability efforts, and changing global consumption patterns. As demand for biodiesel continues to rise, especially in countries like Indonesia, palm oil’s role in the global market will evolve.

While the shift to biodiesel presents an opportunity for energy sustainability, it also challenges traditional markets for palm oil. As Mistry points out, the days of cheap palm oil are behind us, and “palm oil won’t be that cheap again” for the foreseeable future. As Indonesia and other countries push for more biodiesel production, the global supply of palm oil may continue to shrink, driving up prices further.

The palm oil market faces a challenging future, with stagnating production, rising biodiesel demand, and increasing environmental concerns. The next few years will likely see continued price increases and a shift in the balance between food and fuel uses of palm oil, creating new dynamics in the global vegetable oil market. As countries adjust to these changes, the push for sustainable palm oil practices will remain crucial to mitigating the environmental impact of the industry.