Vladimir Putin has intensified his nuclear rhetoric, telling a meeting of top officials that Russia would contemplate using nuclear weapons if attacked by any state employing conventional weapons. His words on Wednesday came during a meeting with Russia's powerful security council, where he also revealed revisions to the country's nuclear policy.
The meeting, which took place in the Kremlin, was attended by key members of Russia's military and political elite. Putin's statements were delivered with a stern demeanor, emphasizing the gravity of the situation. The Russian leader's body language and tone conveyed a sense of determination and resolve, leaving little doubt about the seriousness of his message.
Russia issued its strongest warning yet to the West against allowing Ukraine to launch deep attacks into Russian territory with long-range Western weapons. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, has been requesting authorization for months to utilize British Storm Shadow missiles and US-made Atacms missiles to strike targets deeper within Russia.
This request has been a source of ongoing tension between Ukraine and its Western allies. The debate surrounding the provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine has intensified in recent weeks, with some NATO members expressing concerns about potential escalation. The United States and United Kingdom, in particular, have been cautious about crossing what they perceive as a red line that could provoke a more aggressive response from Russia.
Putin stated that Russia would contemplate using nuclear weapons if it got "reliable information" regarding the launch of a big missile, plane, or drone attack on it.
Putin also warned that a nuclear power that supports another country's attack on Russia would be deemed an aggressor, presenting a thinly veiled threat to the West as international leaders debate whether to allow Ukraine to employ long-range missiles.
The international community has reacted with a mix of concern and skepticism to Putin's statements. Many Western diplomats view these threats as a continuation of Russia's strategy of nuclear saber-rattling, aimed at deterring further support for Ukraine. However, some analysts warn that dismissing such rhetoric entirely could be dangerous, given the unpredictable nature of the ongoing conflict.
Putin stated that the comments were precisely calibrated to reflect Russia's modern military threats. "We observe that the modern military and political scenario is always evolving, and we must take this into account. Including the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and its allies," he stated.
Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy's chief of staff, rejected the new nuclear strategy, saying, "Russia no longer has any tools to scare the world other than nuclear blackmail. "These instruments will not work."
Several prominent foreign policy hawks have already urged Putin to take a more forceful nuclear posture toward the West, lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons in order to prevent the West from providing more direct military support to Ukraine. In June 2020, Putin issued a six-page decree outlining the existing doctrine.
This decree, known as the "Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence," laid out the conditions under which Russia might consider the use of nuclear weapons. The document emphasized that Russia views its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent, to be used only in response to an existential threat to the state. However, the recent statements by Putin suggest a potential shift in this stance, raising questions about the stability of global nuclear deterrence frameworks.
In the early stages of Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, Putin frequently cited Moscow's nuclear arsenal, the world's largest, promising to use any means necessary to defend Russia.
He then appeared to modify his stance, but officials close to the Russian president have recently cautioned NATO members that allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles would risk igniting nuclear war.
Earlier this month, Putin stated that granting such authorization to Ukraine would result in direct conflict with Russia, and that Russia would be forced to undertake "appropriate decisions" without specifying what those measures may be.
The ongoing crisis has reignited global discussions about nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. International organizations, including the United Nations, have called for restraint and dialogue to prevent further escalation. Meanwhile, arms control experts are closely monitoring the situation, warning that the erosion of existing nuclear treaties and the introduction of new military technologies could lead to a dangerous new era of nuclear uncertainty.
