[EUROPE] Donald Trump's recent social media post urging Ukraine to immediately begin peace talks with Russia has raised concerns among European diplomats, potentially derailing, or even threatening, Europe's carefully crafted strategy to convince the US to impose sanctions on Moscow in response to the Kremlin's refusal to accept Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.
The timing of Trump's remarks has prompted questions among European officials, particularly as they followed closely on the heels of a significant joint visit to Kyiv by the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, and Poland. Some diplomats privately wonder whether the post was intended to undermine European efforts for tougher sanctions, although no evidence has emerged to substantiate this theory. The White House has not commented on the speculation.
According to diplomats, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had little choice but to accept Russian President Vladimir Putin's invitation for talks in Istanbul on Thursday, fearing the potential fallout from defying Trump. The offer from Putin was seen as an attempt to avoid alienating the US president and to reduce the mounting European pressure on Trump to enforce harsher sanctions. However, Western diplomats do not believe that Trump and Putin were coordinating their actions.
Over the weekend, the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, and Poland made a rare joint visit to Kyiv, underscoring their call for a 30-day ceasefire, which they hoped would begin on Monday. This unprecedented show of unity among European powers reflects mounting frustration with the stalled peace process. While divisions persist behind the scenes about how aggressively to approach Trump, with some countries wary of alienating US bipartisan support for Ukraine, the public stance remains one of steadfast solidarity with Kyiv.
The aim of the leaders' visit, which included Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Donald Tusk, was to pressure Trump into acknowledging that Putin was stalling the peace process and to push the US into enacting substantial economic sanctions on Russia.
In the US, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has prepared a sanctions package that enjoys widespread support in Congress. Meanwhile, foreign ministers were in Lviv on Friday to intensify pressure on Russia, including advocating for the prosecution of Russian leaders for crimes of aggression at a special tribunal. The UK had also announced additional sanctions targeting Russia's shadow fleet.
However, partly due to Trump's intervention, the UK has postponed further sanctions initially scheduled for Monday. Meanwhile, the European Union is proceeding with plans for a new sanctions package later this month. A German government spokesman indicated that the EU would begin working on the sanctions if no ceasefire was reached by the end of the day.
Analysts note that the EU's capacity to exert pressure on Russia without US participation is limited. While European sanctions have targeted key sectors such as energy and finance, the absence of American measures, particularly those aimed at countering secondary sanctions evasion, has allowed Moscow to mitigate some of the economic pain. “The transatlantic gap on Russia policy is becoming a chasm,” said one expert from a Brussels-based think tank.
The true turning point, however, would come if the US were to implement additional sanctions. This would not only have economic repercussions but would also carry significant political weight, as it would signal Trump's acknowledgment that Putin has been the primary obstacle to a peaceful resolution.
On Sunday, Trump posted a statement on his Truth Social website blaming both Russia and Ukraine for the failure of his ceasefire plan, asserting that Ukraine should agree to meet Russia immediately. “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible,” Trump wrote. “If it is not, European leaders, and the US, will know where everything stands and can proceed accordingly!” Trump added that he was “starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin.”
European leaders gathered in London on Monday are now waiting to see if Putin will attend the Istanbul talks with Zelenskyy, a leader he does not recognize as legitimate. In the last round of talks in Turkey in 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov led the Russian delegation. If Putin attends, it could signal that he recognizes the mounting pressure from Trump.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, however, did not directly address questions about talks with Zelenskyy on Monday. Instead, he emphasized that the Kremlin is focused on “a serious search for ways to achieve a long-term peaceful settlement” and criticized what he termed EU “ultimatums” over Ukraine. “The language of ultimatums is unacceptable to Russia, it is not appropriate. You cannot talk to Russia in such a language,” he said.
On Monday, Trump suggested that Putin might attend and hinted that he himself could participate in the talks. “You may have a good result out of the Thursday meeting in Turkey … and I believe the two leaders are going to be there. I was thinking about flying over. I don’t know where I am going to be on Thursday, I’ve got so many meetings… There’s a possibility there, I guess, if I think things can happen.”
A key demand from European powers is for Putin to stop stalling on the 30-day ceasefire. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, will also be in Turkey on Thursday for an informal NATO summit focused on defense spending. European ministers, however, plan to discuss their belief that Russia’s terms for a peace deal effectively call for the dismemberment of Ukraine.
It’s likely that some European officials will also be in Istanbul to ensure that the Ukrainian negotiating team is prepared for what could be pivotal talks, which have seen relatively little preparation thus far.
If Putin is seen as delaying a ceasefire, or if talks break down in Istanbul, the objective will be to push Trump to recognize that Putin is not interested in a fair peace deal, but rather in securing Ukrainian capitulation.
European foreign ministers, meeting in London, sought to downplay the significance of Trump’s intervention, maintaining that no real negotiations can take place without a full ceasefire. Germany’s new foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, reiterated this on Monday: “It has been clearly articulated that, initially, there is a truce. Ukraine is ready for that. Germany now expects Russia to agree to a ceasefire and then be prepared to negotiate.”
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani expressed skepticism about Moscow’s intentions, saying, “What we are seeing from Moscow is not promising. He’s trying to gain time and possibly occupy more Ukrainian territories.”
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, “To start peace talks, there must be a ceasefire. We must put pressure on Russia because it is playing a game.”
Zelenskyy’s strategy has been to align as much as possible with Trump’s demands, following their earlier public fallout in the Oval Office. Despite the tensions, US military aid continues to flow to Ukraine, including a new $300 million package approved last week. However, Republican voices in Congress are increasingly calling for future aid to be conditioned on progress toward negotiations—an approach that mirrors Trump’s rhetoric but complicates Zelenskyy’s military calculations.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded to Zelenskyy’s interpretation of Putin’s position, telling state news agency Tass, “Putin said it very clearly: negotiations about the initial reasons [for the war] first, then a conversation about a ceasefire.” Russia’s demands include a ban on NATO membership for Ukraine, recognition of Putin’s annexation of four southeastern regions, and an end to Western military support for Kyiv.
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