Oil prices slip amid supply concerns

[WORLD] Oil prices declined slightly on Wednesday, with Brent crude closing at $64.86 and West Texas Intermediate at $62.85. The drop followed data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing unexpectedly large builds in gasoline and diesel inventories, despite a sharp draw in crude oil stocks. Analysts viewed the build in refined product stocks as bearish, pointing to weak demand despite high refinery activity.

Opec+’s plan to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in July further dampened investor sentiment, as markets worried about oversupply. This comes at a time when geopolitical tensions remain high, including worsening U.S.–China trade relations and increased conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, the OECD has cut its global growth forecast, citing the economic impact of U.S. trade policy, which is expected to suppress future oil demand.

Adding to the supply-side complexity, Canada resumed some oil sands production after wildfire risks eased, bringing back part of the 344,000 bpd output lost earlier. Meanwhile, Russia’s declining energy revenues could influence its stance within Opec+, especially regarding further production hikes that might hurt prices.

Implications

For Energy Markets:

The sharp rise in refined product inventories indicates that demand may not be keeping pace with supply. This imbalance could keep oil prices under pressure in the short term, especially as Opec+ increases output. Traders may become more cautious, focusing on inventory data and geopolitical developments.

For Businesses and Consumers:

Lower oil prices may bring temporary relief to consumers via lower fuel costs, but businesses in the energy sector—especially upstream producers—face tighter margins. Energy firms may delay investment or hiring decisions if price volatility continues and demand remains soft.

For Policymakers:

Central banks and fiscal authorities must contend with the complex interaction between energy prices, inflation expectations, and economic growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s concern about slowing activity and rising prices highlights how trade policy, oil dynamics, and monetary policy are now tightly intertwined.

What We Think

The oil market appears to be entering a phase of heightened uncertainty, driven by a tug-of-war between supply increases and demand-side fragility. While geopolitical risks typically drive prices higher, the latest inventory data and Opec+ decisions suggest a looming oversupply that could suppress further gains. “We see limited upside potential,” as Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen aptly noted, encapsulates the market's prevailing mood. The restart of Canadian production adds further downward pressure.

Investors will likely remain skittish, especially as macroeconomic signals—like the OECD’s growth downgrade and the Fed’s caution—point to weaker demand ahead. The upcoming U.S.–China talks could serve as a pivotal moment; a breakthrough might boost sentiment, but further deterioration would only cloud the outlook. For now, oil markets are caught between conflicting narratives, and clarity may remain elusive until demand trends become more definitive.