Russia’s economy transformed for war

[EUROPE] As Russia’s war against Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, President Vladimir Putin has radically reengineered the nation’s economy, channeling resources and industrial capacity toward sustaining a protracted conflict. This war-driven economic transformation has delivered short-term resilience but is now showing signs of deepening strain, with inflation, labor shortages, and declining civilian prosperity threatening Russia’s long-term stability.

Russia’s Economic Pivot: From Civilian Growth to War Production

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has undergone a dramatic economic shift. The Kremlin has prioritized military production above all else, fundamentally altering the country’s economic landscape. In 2025, defense spending is projected to reach a record $132 billion—6.3% of GDP and as much as 43% of the federal budget when hidden expenditures are included. Nearly all new state revenues are now directed toward arms production, military salaries, and recruitment incentives.

This pivot has fueled impressive headline growth in the defense sector. Russia has doubled its production of armored vehicles, quintupled ammunition output at some facilities, and launched a new industry for military drones. The defense sector alone has added over 500,000 workers, while the armed forces and private military organizations have absorbed hundreds of thousands more. Unemployment has dropped to a historic low of 2.4%, signaling an economy at full employment but also at the edge of its productive limits.

The Civilian Economy: Squeezed and Shrinking

While the war economy booms, Russia’s civilian sectors are increasingly starved of resources. The massive reallocation of capital and labor has led to stagnation and even contraction in non-military industries. In early 2025, civilian industrial output shrank by 0.8% per month, with machinery and equipment production falling for four consecutive months. High interest rates—kept at 21% by the Central Bank to curb inflation—have made borrowing prohibitively expensive for non-military businesses and consumers.

Inflation remains a persistent threat. Official rates hovered above 10% in early 2025, but many economists and consumer surveys suggest the real figure is even higher, with perceived inflation at 16% and household spending up by as much as 21% year-on-year. The government has responded with new taxes on corporate profits and high earners, while social spending has been cut in real terms. As a result, income inequality is growing, and living standards for ordinary Russians are eroding.

Labor Shortages and Recruitment: The High Cost of War

Russia’s war economy is now grappling with acute labor shortages, exacerbated by demographic decline, war casualties, and mass emigration. Defense factories and the military are locked in competition for the same pool of workers, driving up wages in the defense sector by as much as 60%. To sustain troop numbers, the Kremlin offers lavish signing bonuses—sometimes up to $29,000—and annual incomes for contract soldiers that far exceed the national average.

Despite these incentives, recruitment is faltering. The military requires 20,000 to 30,000 new recruits each month, but the pool of willing volunteers is shrinking, forcing authorities to offer additional perks such as debt forgiveness, university admission, and healthcare benefits for soldiers’ families. There are also reports of the Kremlin failing to deliver promised payments, further undermining morale and recruitment efforts.

Sanctions, Oil Revenues, and International Partnerships

Western sanctions have battered Russia’s economy, cutting off access to technology, capital, and key export markets. Oil and gas revenues, once the backbone of the Russian budget, have fallen due to lower global prices and tighter enforcement of sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of illicit oil tankers. The National Wealth Fund has plummeted from $150 billion before the war to just $38 billion today, and gold reserves are likewise dwindling.

To compensate, Moscow has deepened economic ties with China, India, and other non-Western partners. Bilateral trade with China reached a record $237 billion in 2023, with China now supplying over 90% of Russia’s semiconductor imports—much of it Western-branded and smuggled in defiance of sanctions. However, this pivot eastward cannot fully offset the loss of Western markets and technology, and it increases Russia’s dependence on a limited set of partners.

Sustainability and the Road Ahead

Despite the Kremlin’s efforts to project strength, the war economy’s foundations are increasingly fragile. Experts warn that Russia’s current model—prioritizing military production at the expense of civilian prosperity—risks long-term stagnation and even collapse if the war drags on or if oil prices fall further. The International Monetary Fund projects that Russia’s economy will grow by just 1% per year going forward, a far cry from the war-fueled spikes of 2023 and 2024.

The strain is visible in the depletion of reserves, persistent inflation, and the growing gap between military and civilian sectors. Civilian industries are shrinking, infrastructure is underfunded, and social discontent is rising, especially as promised war payments go undelivered and casualties mount.

Putin’s transformation of Russia’s economy into a war machine has enabled the Kremlin to sustain its military campaign in Ukraine far longer than many analysts anticipated. However, this strategy has come at a steep cost: eroding civilian prosperity, deepening structural imbalances, and mortgaging Russia’s economic future for the sake of continued conflict. As 2025 progresses, the sustainability of this war-centric model is increasingly in doubt, with the risk of a deeper economic crisis looming should current trends persist.