Shrinking homes, stubborn prices

[UNITED STATES] Despite a steady decline in the size of newly built homes across the United States, housing affordability remains elusive for millions of Americans. Rising construction costs, high mortgage rates, and persistent supply shortages are keeping prices high—even as the average home footprint shrinks to its smallest in over a decade.

The Shrinking American Home

The average size of new single-family homes in the U.S. has been on a downward trend since peaking at 2,689 square feet in 2015. By 2023, that figure had dropped to 2,411 square feet, with the median size falling to just 2,140 square feet in early 2024—the smallest since 2009. Builders are responding to affordability pressures and changing buyer preferences by constructing smaller homes and adding features like porches and patios to maximize usable space.

This "shrinkflation" is evident nationwide, with only a handful of major metropolitan areas seeing an increase in home size over the past five years. The trend is particularly pronounced in fast-growing regions such as Texas and North Carolina, where population influx and limited urban land have compelled builders to downsize homes to meet demand.

Why Smaller Isn’t Cheaper

While logic might suggest that smaller homes should be more affordable, the reality is more complex. The median price for a newly built home in February 2025 stood at $430,000—well above what most Americans can afford, even as square footage declines. Several factors are driving this disconnect:

Rising Material and Labor Costs: Inflation has significantly increased the cost of building materials and labor, forcing builders to either raise prices or reduce home sizes to maintain profitability.

Land Prices and Zoning: Land costs continue to climb, especially in desirable urban and suburban areas. Zoning regulations often require minimum lot sizes, limiting how small homes can actually be built and contributing to higher prices.

High Mortgage Rates: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains elevated, hovering around 6–7% in 2025, which further erodes affordability for buyers.

Supply Shortages: Despite a slight increase in housing inventory, the market remains well below historical norms. The U.S. faces an estimated shortfall of 3.5 to 6 million homes, keeping upward pressure on prices.

The Affordability Crisis Persists

The result of these converging pressures is a housing market where smaller homes have not translated into more accessible prices. From 2019 to 2024, the median sales price for existing homes jumped 50%, from $271,900 to $407,600, far outpacing income growth. Even as homebuilders offer incentives and price reductions, many first-time buyers find themselves priced out of the market.

Renters, too, are feeling the squeeze. As would-be buyers remain in the rental market longer, rents have risen—by 3.7% for higher-end units in the past year—making it harder to save for a down payment. Meanwhile, "mom-and-pop" investors are increasingly purchasing lower-cost properties, intensifying competition for entry-level homes.

Generational Shifts and Buyer Preferences

Changing demographics are also influencing the market. Millennials, now the largest cohort of homebuyers, express a preference for homes with a median of 2,408 square feet, but more than half are willing to trade size for higher-quality finishes and amenities. Baby boomers, by contrast, are downsizing, seeking homes around 1,869 square feet. Across generations, there is a growing openness to smaller, well-appointed homes—yet affordability remains a top concern, with many buyers requiring significant discounts to consider townhomes or smaller properties.

Policy and Market Outlook

Experts agree that the fundamental solution to the affordability crisis is to build more homes of all types—starter homes, townhouses, apartments, and affordable rentals. However, construction starts remain below normal levels, and developers are often incentivized to build premium units where profits are higher. Policy proposals range from expanding low-income housing tax credits to relaxing zoning regulations to allow for more diverse and denser housing options.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest only modest home price growth in 2025—around 2–4% nationally—assuming mortgage rates stabilize or decline. While inventory is expected to improve slightly, experts caution that significant relief for buyers is unlikely in the near term.