Stubb on US-Russia tensions and NATO's future

[UNITED STATES] Former U.S. President Donald Trump is showing signs of impatience with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb, following a detailed conversation with Trump over the weekend.

Speaking at the Lennart Meri security conference in Tallinn, Estonia, Stubb emphasized that any discussion about Ukraine’s future must not sideline President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump and Putin are expected to hold a phone call on Monday, raising concerns in Europe about any potential decisions made without Kyiv’s input.

Stubb indicated the outcome of that conversation could influence the introduction of a new sanctions package in the U.S. Congress. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal are reportedly preparing to propose sweeping economic measures aimed at crippling Russia’s financial system. Graham, in close contact with Stubb, has characterized the pending legislation as “bone-crushing.”

“At this point, we could say Zelenskyy remains patient, while President Trump is becoming increasingly impatient — but in a direction that challenges Russia,” Stubb said.

Tensions between Washington and Moscow have intensified in recent months, with Ukraine and the shifting dynamics in Europe contributing to the strain. As debates around NATO’s future persist, European leaders like Stubb are stepping up diplomatic efforts to present a unified response to what they describe as ongoing Russian aggression.

Stubb rejected concerns that threatening sanctions without immediate follow-through would damage Western credibility, arguing that as long as the pressure makes Putin respond, it remains effective.

Graham’s proposal, discussed with European foreign ministers last week, is expected to focus on penalizing foreign companies that import Russian energy. As a known Trump ally, Graham is aligning the package with Trump’s tariff policies rather than offering an alternative approach.

The initial draft of the bill reportedly included a plan to impose 500% tariffs on goods from nations engaged in Russian energy trade—a broad and aggressive measure reminiscent of earlier Trump-era trade tactics, some of which have since been walked back.

If finalized, the sanctions are expected to target key sectors of the Russian economy, increasing the economic burden on Moscow and pressuring it to reconsider its stance on Ukraine and broader regional issues. This approach reflects a wider Western strategy to impose significant costs on the Kremlin for its actions.

Stubb added that any direct European engagement with Putin should be conducted through the E3—Britain, France, and Germany—stressing the importance of coordinated diplomacy. “At the top level, we should not go solo,” he said.

The Finnish leader, known to have direct access to Trump, has used his position to try to reshape Trump’s view of Russia’s capabilities. He told the conference that in their recent discussion, he sought to illustrate that Russia no longer holds the stature of a great power, especially in economic terms.

“Economically, it’s smaller than Italy, only slightly larger than Spain,” Stubb said. “Militarily, it attempted to deny Ukraine’s sovereignty three years ago and has made less than a one percent gain this year. Its interest rate is over 20%, and its reserves are depleted. This is not the mark of a global power.”

This messaging effort is part of a broader European campaign to realign U.S. perceptions of the Russian threat. Leaders hope that by emphasizing Russia’s economic fragility and military limitations, they can encourage a more strategic and united transatlantic approach.

Stubb noted Trump’s worldview resembled that of 19th-century geopolitics, characterized by great power competition and selective cooperation. “We have to convince the U.S. administration that free trade and common rules are preferable to transactional deals,” he said. “We also need to demonstrate that Europe is a security provider, not just a consumer.”

At the same conference, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker signaled a firmer stance from Washington. “President Trump has said: enough. This is going to happen now,” he said, referring to a planned drawdown of U.S. troops in Europe. While described as an “orderly” process, the move has sparked concern among some European leaders.

The delay of a formal announcement on the troop withdrawal until after the upcoming NATO summit complicates defense planning across the alliance.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski acknowledged the shifting burden in defense spending between the U.S. and Europe. Expressing gratitude to Trump, Sikorski likened Putin to Admiral Yamamoto, whose attack on Pearl Harbor awakened “a sleeping giant.”

“Putin has awakened the giant,” he said. “Since Trump’s presidency began, NATO has doubled its defense spending. We’re now at 2% of GDP. At the next summit, the goal will be 3.5% for hard defense and 1.5% for civil and cyber defense. If we follow through, we will dwarf Russia.”

Sikorski emphasized that Europe already spends more than twice as much as Russia on defense—even during peacetime. “We just need to spend it more effectively and build a credible force,” he said. “We should thank the U.S. for its frankness.”

Stubb also clarified that in his discussions with American officials, there had been no mention of a U.S. exit from NATO. “It remains in America’s interest to maintain strong alliances,” he said.

Estonian President Alar Karis shared that during a two-hour conversation with Trump at the Pope’s funeral in Rome, the former president reassured him: “Don’t worry, you are safe.”

Nevertheless, concerns linger that the NATO summit could expose divisions over how to handle Russia, with European leaders pushing to define Russia as a long-term threat regardless of any potential peace deal in Ukraine. The question of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s role at the summit also remains unresolved, though many view his participation as essential to ensuring Ukraine’s NATO aspirations remain on the table.