Israel and Syria tensions flare again

[MIDDLE EAST] Israel launched multiple airstrikes across southern Syria overnight, claiming it targeted weapons linked to the Syrian government after projectiles were reportedly fired toward Israeli territory. The Israeli military did not clarify who launched the projectiles, but Defense Minister Israel Katz held Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa directly accountable. Syrian state media confirmed the attacks, reporting significant damage and casualties in provinces including Damascus, Quneitra, and Daraa.

This flare-up follows a prior Israeli strike that killed a civilian and marks a continuation of Israel’s broader military campaign against threats from Syrian soil. Local reports from the Wadi Yarmouk area near the Golan Heights indicate the strikes also disrupted agricultural activity, with residents barred from planting crops. Syrian officials denied launching any attacks on Israel, suggesting that other groups might be trying to incite conflict for strategic gain.

Notably, the strikes come amid efforts at direct dialogue between Syria and Israel—an unusual diplomatic step after decades of hostility. However, the emergence of a fringe group claiming responsibility for the projectile attack, allegedly named after a Hamas commander, adds a layer of ambiguity and raises concerns over proxy actors intensifying regional instability.

Implications

For Regional Stability:

The strikes reflect the fragility of security in the Levant. While Syria and Israel have initiated backchannel talks, the involvement of lesser-known militant groups and rapid Israeli reprisals risk derailing any momentum toward de-escalation. A renewed conflict could further destabilize border areas and draw in other actors with vested interests.

For Israeli Policy and Security Doctrine:

Israel’s message is unambiguous: any fire from Syrian territory—regardless of origin—will trigger direct retaliation. This stance reinforces its doctrine of deterrence but raises the risk of miscalculation, especially as Israeli forces continue to operate preemptively in contested border zones, including the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

For Syrian Domestic Politics and Sovereignty:

The strikes underscore Syria's diminished ability to control its southern frontier or prevent non-state actors from operating freely. President al-Sharaa’s government, still consolidating control after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, faces both domestic insecurity and growing international pressure. Syria’s official denial and appeals to diplomacy may reflect its current military and political vulnerability.

What we think

Israel’s latest attacks reinforce a pattern: swift and forceful responses to even ambiguous threats, grounded in a national security posture that sees any projectile launch from Syria as a red line. However, this approach, while tactically effective, could undermine strategic gains made through quiet diplomacy. Syria, still fragmented and recovering, appears unable or unwilling to control hardline actors operating within its borders, complicating Israel’s ability to distinguish between state and non-state threats. The reemergence of obscure militant groups also suggests a shifting landscape in the post-Assad power vacuum—one that could invite more frequent border skirmishes. As Israel tightens its military grip on the Golan Heights and adjacent zones, the region risks sliding further into tit-for-tat conflict, unless both parties can revive de-escalation channels with real enforcement mechanisms.