Investors brace for Nvidia earnings

[WORLD] As Nvidia prepares to release its quarterly earnings report later today, semiconductor-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are displaying signs of caution. Traders are closely monitoring the impact of Nvidia's performance on the broader semiconductor sector, with increased activity in options markets indicating heightened uncertainty.

Increased Put Option Activity in Semiconductor ETFs

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which holds a significant portion of Nvidia shares, has experienced a surge in put option trading. Over the past ten days, the ratio of put to call options has reached 2.4:1, marking the most defensive positioning in ten months. On Tuesday alone, approximately 105,000 puts were traded compared to 16,000 calls, including a notable transaction of 50,000 puts, suggesting investor concerns about a potential 10% decline in the ETF's value.

In addition to ETF activity, individual semiconductor stocks are also experiencing increased options trading volume. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), and Qualcomm (QCOM) have all seen upticks in protective options strategies, mirroring the caution seen in ETF holdings. This broader hedging behavior suggests that investors are preparing for a sector-wide reaction, regardless of Nvidia’s individual performance.

This cautious sentiment is reflected in other semiconductor ETFs as well. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) have also seen increased put option activity, indicating that investors are hedging against potential downside risks in the sector.

Nvidia's Impact on Semiconductor ETFs

Nvidia's performance has a substantial influence on semiconductor ETFs due to its significant weighting in these funds. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF allocates over 20% of its assets to Nvidia, making it the largest holding in the fund. Similarly, Nvidia comprises approximately 9% of the iShares Semiconductor ETF.

Nvidia's previous earnings report in February exceeded expectations, driving a sharp rally in the semiconductor space and contributing to a 12% monthly gain in SMH. The company's consistent ability to outperform has historically helped stabilize or boost sector sentiment. However, with elevated valuations and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, market participants are more guarded this quarter.

The company's results are also viewed as a bellwether for the health of AI-related infrastructure spending. Nvidia’s GPUs power the majority of AI training models used in enterprise and cloud computing, making its earnings and forward guidance particularly relevant for investors tracking the growth of generative AI and machine learning applications.

Analysts are closely watching Nvidia's earnings report, as the company's performance can significantly impact the overall semiconductor sector. Positive results could bolster investor confidence, while disappointing earnings may lead to broader market sell-offs.

Market Expectations and Volatility

Traders anticipate significant volatility following Nvidia's earnings announcement. Implied volatility suggests that the stock could move by approximately 6% in either direction in the days following the report. This potential for sharp price movements is contributing to the cautious approach observed in the options market.

Despite these concerns, some investors remain optimistic about Nvidia's prospects. The company's strong position in the AI and data center markets continues to attract interest, with many analysts maintaining positive outlooks. However, the recent trade restrictions and potential impacts on revenue growth are factors that investors are carefully evaluating.

Adding to investor unease are geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China. Recent regulatory announcements have hinted at the possibility of further restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductor technologies. Nvidia, which has already been affected by previous U.S. export controls on AI chips, may face additional scrutiny that could influence its guidance and international sales forecasts.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s evolving stance on interest rates and inflation has added another layer of complexity to the investment environment. As tech stocks remain sensitive to macroeconomic signals, Nvidia’s results and commentary could also sway market expectations around tech valuations and growth prospects in the second half of 2025.

As Nvidia's earnings report approaches, semiconductor ETFs are exhibiting signs of caution, with increased put option activity indicating concerns about potential downside risks. The outcome of Nvidia's earnings announcement is poised to have a significant impact on the broader semiconductor sector, influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics in the coming days.