Regions and income groups most affected by Trump tax cut expiration

As the clock ticks towards 2025, millions of American taxpayers are bracing for a potential financial shock. The Trump-era tax cuts, implemented through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, are set to expire, potentially leading to significant tax increases for individuals and families across the nation. This impending change in tax policy has sparked intense debate among policymakers, economists, and taxpayers alike, as they grapple with the potential economic impact and seek ways to mitigate the effects on household budgets.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law by former President Donald Trump, brought about sweeping changes to the U.S. tax code. These changes included lower individual income tax rates, an increased standard deduction, and modifications to various tax credits and deductions. However, due to budget constraints and legislative procedures, many of these provisions were designed to be temporary, with an expiration date of December 31, 2025.

Who Will Feel the Pinch?

As we approach this critical juncture, it's essential to understand which regions and income groups are likely to experience the most significant tax increases if the Trump tax cuts expire without further legislative action.

Middle-Class Families

Contrary to popular belief, it's not just high-income earners who stand to lose if the tax cuts expire. Middle-class families, particularly those with children, could see substantial increases in their tax burdens. The expanded child tax credit, which was a cornerstone of the 2017 tax reform, would revert to its previous, lower amount. This change alone could significantly impact families with multiple children.

If the legislation remains unchanged, a married couple with two children and $100,000 in income will pay $2,600 more in taxes in 2026 than they paid in 2025. This stark increase underscores the potential financial strain on middle-income households if the tax cuts are allowed to expire.

High-Tax States

Residents of high-tax states, such as New York, California, and New Jersey, may feel a disproportionate impact from the expiration of the Trump tax cuts. One of the most contentious provisions of the 2017 law was the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. While this cap is set to expire along with other provisions, the potential return to higher federal tax rates could offset any benefits from an uncapped SALT deduction.

Tony Nitti, a CPA and partner at RubinBrown LLP, notes, "If you're in a high-tax state like New York or California, you're going to feel it more acutely because you're going to have higher rates at the federal level and you're already paying high rates at the state level". This double whammy of federal and state taxes could lead to a significant increase in the overall tax burden for residents of these states.

High-Income Earners

While much of the focus has been on the middle class, high-income earners are not exempt from the potential tax hikes. The top marginal tax rate would increase from 37% to 39.6% if the cuts expire. Additionally, the threshold for this top rate would decrease, subjecting more taxpayers to the highest marginal rate.

Currently, married couples would be subject to a top rate of approximately $730,000, but this would be reduced to approximately $580,000. As a result of this modification, a greater proportion of the salaries of individuals with high incomes will be subject to the highest rate of taxation, which may result in significant increases in the amount of taxes that they are required to pay.

Key Provisions Set to Expire

To fully grasp the potential impact of the tax cut expiration, it's crucial to understand the specific provisions that are set to change. Here are some of the most significant alterations that could occur:

Tax Brackets and Rates

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act adjusted the income tax brackets and lowered rates across the board. If these cuts expire, we would see a return to the previous bracket structure and higher rates. This change would affect taxpayers at all income levels, with the most substantial increases occurring at the top and bottom of the income scale.

Standard Deduction

One of the most widely felt changes of the 2017 tax reform was the near-doubling of the standard deduction. This increase simplified tax filing for millions of Americans by reducing the need to itemize deductions. However, if the cuts expire, the standard deduction would revert to its lower, pre-2018 levels, potentially increasing the tax burden for those who currently take the standard deduction.

Child Tax Credit

The expanded child tax credit has been a significant benefit for families with children. The credit amount increased from $1,000 to $2,000 per child, with up to $1,400 of that amount being refundable. If this provision expires, families could see a substantial reduction in this valuable tax benefit.

Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

The AMT, designed to ensure that high-income taxpayers pay a minimum amount of tax, was significantly modified by the 2017 law. The exemption amount was increased, and the income threshold at which the exemption begins to phase out was raised. If these changes expire, more taxpayers could find themselves subject to the AMT, potentially increasing their tax liabilities.

Estate Tax Exemption

The Trump tax cuts dramatically increased the estate tax exemption, allowing individuals to pass on up to $11.7 million (for 2021) to their heirs without incurring federal estate taxes. If this provision expires, the exemption would revert to its previous level of around $5 million, adjusted for inflation. This change could have significant implications for estate planning and wealth transfer strategies.

Economic Implications and Policy Considerations

The potential expiration of the Trump tax cuts raises important questions about economic growth, federal revenue, and income inequality. Proponents of extending the cuts argue that they have stimulated economic growth and job creation. Critics, however, contend that the cuts have disproportionately benefited high-income earners and corporations while adding to the federal deficit.

As policymakers debate the future of these tax provisions, they must weigh various factors:

Economic Recovery: With the economy still recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, some argue that allowing the tax cuts to expire could hamper growth and consumer spending.

Federal Deficit: Extending the tax cuts would likely increase the federal deficit, a concern for those focused on fiscal responsibility.

Income Inequality: The distribution of the tax benefits has been a point of contention, with some arguing that any extension should be more targeted towards lower and middle-income taxpayers.

Planning for the Future

Given the uncertainty surrounding the future of these tax provisions, taxpayers should consider taking proactive steps to prepare for potential changes:

Consult with a Tax Professional: The complexity of the tax code and the potential for significant changes make it crucial to seek expert advice tailored to your specific situation.

Review Your Withholding: Ensure that your tax withholding is appropriate to avoid surprises when filing your taxes.

Consider Accelerating Income: If you expect to be in a higher tax bracket in the future, it may be beneficial to accelerate income into years with lower rates.

Explore Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Maximize contributions to retirement accounts and other tax-advantaged savings vehicles to help offset potential tax increases.

As we approach 2025, the potential expiration of the Trump tax cuts looms large over the American economic landscape. While the impact will be felt across various income levels and geographic regions, middle-class families, residents of high-tax states, and high-income earners may experience the most significant changes to their tax liabilities.

The coming years will likely see intense debate and negotiation over the future of these tax provisions. As policymakers grapple with balancing economic growth, federal revenue, and issues of equity, taxpayers must stay informed and prepare for potential changes to the tax code.

Ultimately, the expiration of the Trump tax cuts, if allowed to occur without modification, could reshape the financial landscape for millions of Americans. By understanding the potential impacts and taking proactive steps to prepare, taxpayers can better navigate the uncertain waters of tax policy in the years to come.