Malaysian PM Anwar cautions against Trump's proposed import tariffs

[MALAYSIA] Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim expressed deep concern over the potential repercussions of Donald Trump's proposed import tariffs on the Malaysian economy. As the global trade landscape faces potential upheaval, Anwar's warnings highlight the delicate balance Malaysia must maintain in its international trade relations.

The Looming Threat of US Tariffs

The specter of a Trump presidency returning to the White House has sent ripples through the global economic community, with Malaysia finding itself particularly exposed to the potential fallout. Trump's campaign promise to implement a universal baseline import tariff of 10% on all US imports has raised alarms among economists and policymakers alike.

Anwar Ibrahim, addressing these concerns, stated, "Whether we join BRICS or not, protectionist policies will affect us. I mean a huge [portion of] microchips and semiconductors were exported to the US – 26 per cent – and it will certainly affect us". This statement underscores the vulnerability of Malaysia's crucial tech export sector to any shifts in US trade policy.

Malaysia's Tech Sector in the Crosshairs

Malaysia's position as a key player in the global semiconductor industry puts it at particular risk from any trade disruptions. The country ranks as the seventh largest semiconductor exporter globally, commanding a 7% market share. Moreover, Malaysia accounts for an impressive 13% of the global share in chip assembly, testing, and packaging within the supply chain.

The presence of tech giants such as Intel, Samsung, Western Digital, and Bosch in Malaysia further emphasizes the country's integral role in the global electronics supply chain. Any disruption to this ecosystem could have far-reaching consequences not just for Malaysia, but for the entire global tech industry.

The Broader Impact on Asian Economies

While Malaysia stands out as particularly vulnerable, the potential impact of Trump's proposed tariffs extends across the Asian region. According to analysis by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), the effects would be most pronounced on export-oriented and manufacturing-heavy economies, including Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea, alongside Malaysia.

Trade Diversion and Increased Competition

The implementation of Trump's proposed tariffs could set off a chain reaction of trade diversion and increased competition among Asian economies. ANZ warns that any potential gains for non-Chinese Asian countries from trade diversion and production relocation would likely be limited. This limitation stems from the growing risk that Trump's policies could make it more challenging for products with significant Chinese content to enter the US market.

Furthermore, this scenario could prompt Chinese exporters to strengthen their presence in non-US markets, intensifying competition for other Asian economies not only in export markets but also within their domestic markets. ANZ cautioned, "Asian economies with high levels of export similarity with China or with weaker manufacturing bases would be impacted".

Malaysia's Delicate Balancing Act

Anwar Ibrahim's tenure as Prime Minister has been marked by a nuanced approach to international relations, sometimes at odds with his previous reputation as a pro-Western figure. His decision to bring Malaysia into the BRICS bloc, joining countries like Brazil, Russia, China, India, and Iran, has raised eyebrows in some Western circles.

However, Anwar defends this decision, framing it within Malaysia's identity as "a trading nation." He argues that Malaysia's vulnerability to protectionist policies from the White House exists independently of its BRICS membership. This stance reflects Malaysia's attempt to diversify its international partnerships while maintaining crucial economic ties with the United States.

The Importance of US Investment

Despite concerns over potential tariffs, the United States remains Malaysia's top source of foreign investment. Recent deals with American tech giants Amazon Web Services, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle are set to potentially inject US$16.7 billion into the Malaysian economy. This underscores the delicate balance Malaysia must strike between pursuing new international alignments and preserving its vital economic relationship with the US.

The Global Context: A Potential Trade War

The implications of Trump's proposed tariffs extend far beyond Malaysia or even Asia. ANZ warns that a universal baseline import tariff of 10% on all US imports risks sparking a global trade war. Such a scenario would have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, potentially disrupting supply chains and dampening economic growth worldwide.

Trump's additional proposal of a 60% tariff or more on all US imports from China adds another layer of complexity to the situation. ANZ predicts that such a move would likely "put the global supply chain in disarray" and cut into aggregate demand in both the US and Chinese economies.

The Chinese Factor

The potential for increased competition from Chinese exporters in non-US markets adds another dimension to the challenges facing Malaysia and other Asian economies. With China's economy expected to undergo a structural slowdown over the medium term, Chinese companies may increasingly look to other markets to maintain growth.

The World Bank projects China's growth to slow to 4.5% in 2024, down from 5.2% in 2023. This slowdown, combined with potential US tariffs, could lead to what ANZ describes as "greater export competition among Asian economies in non-US markets, as well as greater penetration of Chinese exports in Asia's domestic markets".

Looking Ahead: Navigating Uncertain Waters

As Malaysia and other Asian economies brace for potential changes in US trade policy, the need for economic resilience and diversification becomes increasingly apparent. Anwar Ibrahim's warnings serve as a reminder of the interconnected nature of the global economy and the far-reaching impacts of protectionist policies.

For Malaysia, the challenge lies in maintaining its crucial role in the global tech supply chain while also exploring new economic partnerships and opportunities. The country's BRICS membership, alongside its continued strong ties with the US, exemplifies this balancing act.

As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, countries like Malaysia must remain agile, adapting to changing trade dynamics while working to mitigate the potential impacts of protectionist policies. The coming months and years will likely see continued debate and negotiation as nations strive to balance national interests with the benefits of open, global trade.