How trade wars are reshaping family office investment strategies in 2025

Global economic tensions are no longer distant risks—they’ve arrived on center stage. The UBS Global Family Office Report 2025 reveals that 70% of family offices now rank a global trade war as the single biggest threat to achieving their financial goals over the next 12 months. It’s not just a statistical footnote. It reflects how recent U.S. policy actions—escalating tariffs on China, renewed frictions with the EU, and strategic decoupling from key tech supply chains—have shaken investor confidence across continents.

What’s different this time? Unlike past periods of economic volatility, this disruption isn’t being driven by monetary tightening or cyclical slowdowns. Instead, it’s geopolitics—unpredictable, fast-moving, and harder to hedge. Family offices aren’t just watching; they’re adjusting.

Old rules about diversification and return expectations are losing traction.

Trade wars do more than stir up headlines—they ricochet through supply chains, shift production costs, and create ripple effects across asset classes. For globally exposed portfolios, especially those managed by family offices with cross-border holdings, the implications are both operational and strategic.

Consider equities. Developed markets remain a strategic pillar, with allocations climbing from 24% in 2023 to a projected 29% by the end of 2025. But this isn’t blind optimism. The focus has narrowed toward sectors like healthcare, AI, and electrification—industries with long-term resilience and less direct exposure to trade bottlenecks.

Private equity, on the other hand, is cooling ever so slightly. Allocations dipped from 22% to 21%, a modest shift with larger meaning. Behind that number lies growing unease: tighter credit conditions, longer holding periods, and fewer clear exits. It’s a sign that even well-capitalized investors are reevaluating the risk-reward tradeoff of locking up capital in a jittery world.

This once-overlooked asset class is becoming a core pillar.

One of the most noticeable realignments in 2025? The surge in private debt allocations. From a mere 2% in 2023, it doubled to 4% the following year—and that upward trend shows no signs of slowing. But don’t mistake this for a yield grab. It’s a strategic pivot toward instruments that offer structure, security, and some immunity from public market contagion.

In an environment riddled with rate volatility and political flashpoints, private debt provides something increasingly rare: predictability. Strong covenants, contractual returns, and less correlation to equity markets have made it an attractive alternative for institutions that prize capital stability.

This movement isn’t happening in isolation. It mirrors a broader institutional awakening. Traditional bonds have struggled to deliver real returns, while equities have swung wildly with sentiment. Private credit fills the gap—and family offices are taking notice.

The new investment playbook rewards precision and flexibility—not blind exposure.

There’s been a quiet, but decisive, shift in how family offices manage risk. Passive exposure still plays a role, but active strategies are stepping back into the spotlight. In an environment where macro events can upend markets overnight, tactical flexibility has never been more valuable.

Derivatives, once the domain of hedge funds, are being used more widely for foreign exchange and commodity hedging. Gold and other precious metals are reappearing too—not for speculative gains, but as geopolitical insurance.

Liquidity, meanwhile, is no longer viewed as a drag on performance. It’s a strategic lever. Cash and near-cash positions are rising, not only as protection against downside shocks, but to stay ready for moments of dislocation—when quality assets go on sale.

Operations are evolving as well. Many offices are accelerating their shift toward institutional-grade governance: scenario modeling, real-time risk metrics, and tighter financial tracking. In today’s unpredictable landscape, being nimble isn’t optional—it’s essential.

When everything else changes, leadership continuity becomes critical.

Despite their sophistication, many family offices still lack one crucial element: a succession strategy. The UBS data is striking—just 53% have a formal wealth transition plan in place. That’s a problem, especially as global risks intensify and wealth management becomes more complex.

Succession planning is more than just legal paperwork. It’s about alignment—ensuring the next generation understands the family’s investment philosophy, governance priorities, and evolving risk profile. As younger members show increasing interest in ESG, impact, and values-based investing, these conversations can’t be left until the last minute.

Without a clear framework, family offices may find themselves caught off guard—internally misaligned just as external shocks mount. The result? Fractured strategy, reactive decision-making, and missed opportunities. Continuity planning isn’t a luxury. It’s a form of risk management.

These strategic shifts offer a window into where capital might flow next.

The portfolio adjustments family offices are making aren’t just tactical. They signal a broader reevaluation of how risk is priced—and where capital seeks shelter.

• Structural growth over cyclical returns. Sectors like AI, green tech, and healthcare are being favored not just for their upside, but for their resilience. The pivot away from broad beta reflects deeper skepticism about macro stability.
• Private debt’s rise may be permanent. No longer an exotic slice of the pie, it’s emerging as a central feature of diversified portfolios. That suggests a more lasting shift in how yield and protection are balanced.
• Geopolitics is now a daily input. Inflation, interest rates, and GDP still matter—but so do trade policy, sanctions, and strategic alliances. Asset allocation models must evolve accordingly.
• Dry powder is back in style. Investors are relearning the value of liquidity—not just to preserve capital, but to capitalize on distressed opportunities when they arise.
• Operational excellence creates alpha. Clean data, fast decision cycles, and institutional processes are no longer optional. In a fractured world, internal clarity becomes a competitive edge.

Family offices aren’t just repositioning their portfolios—they’re rewriting the rules for how capital is managed in a geopolitically fragmented world. Their actions in 2025 suggest a deeper recognition that volatility is structural, not temporary. This isn’t a pause between economic cycles—it’s a turning point in capital strategy.

Adaptability, liquidity, and governance now matter as much as growth potential. And while the trade headlines will continue to evolve, the real shift is already underway: a move toward investments that are not only profitable, but resilient. Offices that fail to recalibrate may soon find that they’ve optimized for the wrong risks. What we’re witnessing isn’t reaction. It’s foresight. And in this environment, foresight is the new alpha.