Why the U.S. fears China’s rare earth grip

[WORLD] China’s recent restrictions on rare earth exports have raised alarms in the United States, highlighting vulnerabilities in critical supply chains. While rare earth elements (REEs) are not inherently scarce, China's dominance in processing and refining these materials poses significant challenges to U.S. industries reliant on them.

The Strategic Importance of Rare Earths

Rare earth elements, including gallium, germanium, and antimony, are vital components in various technologies, from defense systems to consumer electronics. Despite their name, these elements are relatively abundant in the Earth's crust. However, the complexity and environmental impact of extracting and refining them have led to a concentration of processing capabilities in a few countries, notably China.

China currently controls approximately 85% of global rare earth refining capacity and produces about 60% of the world's rare earths. This concentration gives China significant leverage in global markets, allowing it to influence prices and supply availability.

In addition to economic power, Beijing's control of rare earth supply chains has increasingly become a diplomatic tool. In past trade disputes, China has threatened or enacted rare earth export restrictions to pressure countries into compliance with its foreign policy objectives. Analysts point to the 2010 incident with Japan, where rare earth exports were cut off amid territorial tensions, as a precedent that continues to shape Western perceptions of China’s strategic intentions.

U.S. Dependence and Vulnerabilities

The United States' reliance on Chinese rare earths is a critical concern. For instance, the F-35 fighter jet requires approximately 920 pounds of rare earths for its electrical systems and targeting equipment. Similarly, gallium and germanium are essential for high-performance semiconductors and advanced military technologies.

Compounding this issue is the U.S. lack of processing infrastructure. While some mining operations, such as the Mountain Pass mine in California, extract rare earth ore domestically, most of this material is still shipped to China for refinement. This means that even when the U.S. controls the raw materials, it remains dependent on foreign facilities for the next stages of production—creating a chokepoint that has yet to be resolved.

Despite efforts to diversify supply sources, the U.S. remains vulnerable. Domestic production is limited, and alternative suppliers like Australia and Canada are still developing their capabilities. Experts estimate that establishing a robust non-Chinese supply chain could take 10 to 15 years.

Economic and Strategic Implications

China's export restrictions have immediate economic consequences. The U.S. Geological Survey projects that a complete ban on gallium and germanium exports could reduce U.S. GDP by $3.4 billion. Industries such as semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and renewable energy are particularly affected, facing increased costs and potential production delays.

Strategically, these restrictions underscore the importance of securing critical mineral supply chains. The U.S. government has initiated measures to bolster domestic production, including invoking the Defense Production Act and investing in alternative sources. However, these efforts are in the early stages and face significant challenges, including environmental concerns and high operational costs.

To address these obstacles, the Biden administration has announced new funding for rare earth research and development under the Inflation Reduction Act. A $500 million allocation is intended to support public-private partnerships focused on improving refining technologies, minimizing environmental damage, and accelerating the timeline for U.S.-based facilities to come online. Lawmakers have also introduced bipartisan legislation to reduce regulatory burdens and incentivize domestic investment.

Environmental advocates, however, caution that the rush to build new rare earth infrastructure must be balanced against ecological risks. The refining process often involves hazardous chemicals and radioactive byproducts, leading to opposition from local communities near proposed sites. The challenge lies in developing technologies that can meet industrial demand without repeating the environmental degradation seen in legacy operations, particularly those in Inner Mongolia and southern China.

Global Market Reactions

The global market has responded to China's actions with increased volatility. Prices for affected materials have risen, and countries are seeking to establish more resilient supply chains. For example, Rio Tinto's collaboration with Indium Corp. aims to develop commercial-scale gallium production in North America, potentially reducing dependence on Chinese exports.

Investors are also closely monitoring the situation. The VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) has experienced fluctuations, reflecting market uncertainty and the strategic importance of these materials.

Meanwhile, international coalitions are forming to counterbalance China's dominance. The Minerals Security Partnership, which includes the U.S., EU, Japan, South Korea, and others, has pledged to coordinate efforts in funding rare earth mining and refining projects across allied nations. This collective approach aims to create a more resilient and diversified supply ecosystem capable of withstanding geopolitical disruptions.

While rare earth elements are not inherently rare, their concentration in China's supply chain presents significant challenges for the United States. The recent export restrictions have highlighted the strategic importance of these materials and the need for diversified and secure supply chains. Addressing these vulnerabilities will require concerted efforts from both the public and private sectors to ensure the resilience of critical industries.