Southeast Asia’s dilemma in the US-China trade war

[WORLD] A prominent Chinese political scientist has cautioned that Southeast Asian nations could face economic stagnation and increased diplomatic isolation from China if they side too closely with the United States in the ongoing trade conflict. Zheng Yongnian, dean of the School of Public Policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, argued that Washington’s backing of the region’s re-industrialisation is secondary to its primary goal of reshoring manufacturing to the US—unlike China, which he said is better positioned to genuinely support Southeast Asia’s development objectives.

Zheng's assessment reflects the nuanced geopolitical dynamics at play in the region, which has long served as a key nexus for global trade. With its strategic positioning and expanding economies, Southeast Asia has become increasingly vital as supply chains shift and the global search for new manufacturing bases intensifies.

Over the past two decades, Southeast Asian countries have significantly benefited from China’s economic ascent. Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative has driven massive investment into the region, funding key infrastructure such as ports, rail networks, and energy systems. This economic interdependence has deepened ties between China and ASEAN member states, making the region’s diplomatic positioning all the more delicate amid intensifying US-China rivalry.

Conversely, the United States has sharpened its focus on reducing dependency on foreign manufacturing by promoting policies aimed at returning production to American soil. While this may serve US economic interests, Zheng noted, it does little to advance Southeast Asia’s long-term ambitions to expand its manufacturing sectors and embed further into global production networks.

The escalation of the US-China trade dispute has only added to the strain. Retaliatory tariffs and shifting trade patterns have disrupted regional economies, leaving Southeast Asian countries vulnerable to economic headwinds and forcing them to make difficult strategic choices.

Zheng’s comments come at a time when the region is also contending with a host of domestic challenges, from political instability to the pursuit of sustainable development. Balancing these internal priorities with external geopolitical pressures will require deft diplomacy and strategic foresight.

As the geopolitical landscape grows more intricate, ASEAN nations face a critical juncture. How they navigate the competing pulls of the US and China will shape not only their economic trajectories but also the broader stability of the region.