[MIDDLE EAST]The Biden administration has hailed the long-awaited peace between Hezbollah and Israel as a diplomatic achievement won under enormous duress during a lame-duck time, with a hostile Donald Trump administration on the horizon.
Joe Biden, speaking from a lectern in the White House's Rose Garden, described the outcome as "historic" and said it "reminds us that peace is possible". He stated that it will return civilians to their homes and has "determined that this conflict will not be just another cycle of violence".
The ceasefire agreement comes after months of intense diplomatic efforts, with the Biden administration working tirelessly behind the scenes to bring both parties to the negotiating table. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made multiple trips to the region, engaging in shuttle diplomacy between Tel Aviv and Beirut. These efforts were complemented by back-channel communications facilitated by key regional allies, including Egypt and Qatar, which played crucial roles in bridging the gap between the two adversaries.
However, the peace, which was preceded by significant Israeli airstrikes on Beirut in the closing hours before it went into force, is tenuous at best. The convoluted arrangement will allow Israel to continue striking targets in Lebanon that it considers to be a direct security threat, but it will rely heavily on Benjamin Netanyahu's prudence to last.
The 60-day truce will also be predicated on the Lebanese army's ability to maintain peace in Hezbollah strongholds, Hezbollah's inability to rearm, and Lebanon's ability to transform itself in the aftermath of the catastrophic conflict.
The economic implications of this ceasefire are significant for both Israel and Lebanon. The prolonged conflict has taken a heavy toll on the economies of both nations, with Lebanon particularly struggling under the weight of a severe economic crisis exacerbated by the hostilities. International financial institutions have pledged support for Lebanon's reconstruction efforts, contingent on the maintenance of peace and implementation of crucial reforms. Meanwhile, Israel's tech-driven economy, which has shown resilience throughout the conflict, is poised for potential growth as regional stability improves.
Finally, it occurs during a power transfer from a very internationalist Biden government to Trump's "America first" ideology. Given all of this, observers believe there is still a good risk that war in southern Lebanon may resume.
"An Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire would be a significant and welcome success," wrote Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But this is a transaction, not a metamorphosis. We'd all be wise to defer judgment until we're far into the 60-day period. "Irony of ironies it might well fall apart on Trump's watch," he added.
However, the fact that an agreement exists is a rare victory for the Biden administration, which had promised for months that its negotiators were close to negotiating ceasefires to end Israel's hostilities with Hezbollah and Hamas.
The humanitarian aspect of this ceasefire cannot be overstated. Aid organizations have been quick to mobilize, preparing to enter areas previously inaccessible due to the conflict. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has announced plans to lead a coordinated effort to assist displaced persons returning to their homes in southern Lebanon. This includes providing essential supplies, temporary shelter, and psychological support to those traumatized by the prolonged conflict. The success of these humanitarian efforts will be crucial in building public trust in the ceasefire and fostering a climate conducive to long-term peace.
A senior US administration source, speaking on background, said he saw a "light at the end of the tunnel" in late October, reportedly after Trump personally gave tacit backing to Israel's strategic affairs minister, Ron Dermer, at Mar-a-Lago. According to Axios, Dermer then met with top Biden administration officials to finalize the agreement. The administration's rationale, according to the adviser, was "loss of life and the realization by both sides that the battlefield will not be the final answer."
One reason for optimism is that the Trump administration appears to be taking ownership of the program, hailing it as its own victory. "Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump," Florida Representative Mike Waltz, Trump's new national security adviser, wrote on X. "His tremendous win sends a strong message to the rest of the world: anarchy will not be allowed. I'm pleased to see concrete moves toward de-escalation in the Middle East."
The role of regional powers in maintaining this fragile peace cannot be understated. Saudi Arabia and Iran, long-standing rivals in the Middle East, have both expressed cautious support for the ceasefire. This unexpected alignment of interests between these regional heavyweights could potentially pave the way for broader regional stability. Diplomatic sources suggest that back-channel communications between Riyadh and Tehran have intensified in recent weeks, indicating a possible shift in the regional power dynamics that could have far-reaching implications for Middle East peace efforts.
Looking ahead, a US administration official stated that the government believes it may have a "window of opportunity" to move from the Hezbollah agreement to a considerably more illusive truce in Gaza.
"Now I think the political and geopolitical stars are both aligned and we're going to see what we can do over the next 50, whatever days it is," a government official stated. "And to that end, we are clear-eyed that there's administration coming in, and … we won't do anything on this unless they know what we're doing."
Much will depend on the Lebanese army's ability to keep the country's south peaceful (a similar security guarantee failed after the 2006 war). This time, the United States will take a much more active role in providing materiel and then diplomatic support to prevent a new conflict from breaking out.
"There is genuine hope that the ceasefire agreement will last, though many questions remain," commented Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. If Lebanese troops fail to prevent Hezbollah from rearming or gaining Iranian help, the Israeli military may resume attacks.
"After October 7, Israel is far less trusting of deterrence and more of a believer in keeping its enemies weak," he explained. "It may view limited strikes as a way of sending a message, and this may work - but such strikes always come with a risk of escalation and renewed war."
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