In about ten years, there may be more funerals than baby showers to attend as Singaporeans' deaths outnumber their births. If - or when - this occurs, Singapore's population will decrease without immigration.
Academics who study population issues believe this will have far-reaching repercussions, including changes to Singapore's workforce size and economic dynamism. It will also have an influence on the caregiver burden and the social fabric, they stated.
The demographic shift in Singapore is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a broader trend observed in many developed nations. As societies become more affluent and urbanized, birth rates tend to decline due to factors such as increased education levels, career aspirations, and the high cost of raising children. This transition, known as the demographic dividend, initially brings economic benefits but eventually leads to challenges associated with an aging population. Singapore's situation reflects the complexities of managing this demographic evolution in a small, highly developed city-state.
On September 9, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) Indranee Rajah stated in a written response to a parliamentary question: "Based on current trends, the number of citizen deaths could exceed the number of citizen births in the first half of the 2030s."
She was responding to Non-Constituency MP Hazel Poa, who had requested information on the number of citizen deaths over the last decade, as well as the year in which this total will exceed citizen births. There were 24,726 citizen deaths in 2023. This was a 40 percent increase from 17,691 deaths in 2014.
In contrast, citizen births decreased throughout the same time period. A PMO spokesman told The Straits Times that there would be 28,877 such births in 2023, down 13% from 33,193 in 2014.
Citizen births relate to newborns born to at least one Singaporean parent, who are automatically granted Singapore citizenship at birth, according to the spokeswoman.
Ms Indranee said that the predictions are intended to show the potential for population increase and change if specific demographic assumptions are met over the projected timeframe. These assumptions may or may not be realized, she stated. The PMO representative stated that these estimates are regarding future fertility rates, migration, and life expectancies.
When a country's fertility rate falls for an extended period of time, its population ages and the number of deaths naturally outnumbers the number of births, according to Professor Jean Yeung, director of social sciences at the Agency for Science, Technology, and Research Institute for Human Development and Potential.
The only question is when the number of deaths will exceed the number of births, according to Prof Yeung, who also teaches at NUS's Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine. This is determined by factors such as the amount and rate of fertility reduction, she explained.
Singapore's resident total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of infants a woman will have during her reproductive years, has been declining for the past 30 years. It dipped below one to 0.97 in 2023, for the first time in Singapore's history.
This historic low in Singapore's fertility rate is a cause for concern among policymakers and demographers. A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level, necessary to maintain a stable population without immigration. Singapore's rate of 0.97 indicates that each generation is only replacing about half of itself, which could lead to rapid population decline if not addressed. This situation puts pressure on the government to find innovative solutions to encourage family formation and support parenthood, while also considering the role of immigration in maintaining population stability.
Over the last two decades, the Republic has implemented a slew of policies aimed at increasing fertility. This includes giving babies Baby Bonus cash presents, increasing maternity and paternal leave, and expanding government co-funding for in-vitro fertilization treatment for older women.
On the other hand, Singapore's population is quickly aging. In 2010, almost one in ten Singaporeans was 65 or older. By 2030, that figure is predicted to increase to almost one in four.
Academics contacted were unsurprised by the PMO's estimates, noting that countries with low birth rates, such as China, Japan, and Italy, already have more deaths than births.
These countries have attempted to address population decrease in a variety of methods, including raising birth rates, delaying retirement age, and increasing migration. For example, in 2023, Japan's population declined for the 15th year in a row, with 730,000 newborns born but 1.58 million deaths. China's population declined for the second consecutive year in 2023. There were 9.02 million births and 11.1 million deaths.
According to Dr Tan Poh Lin, a senior research researcher at the Institute of Policy Studies, the year in which deaths outnumber births is "not that significant". More critical is the rate at which the gap between the number of deaths and births widens, as the "rapid rate of change in population and workforce size will make it more difficult for society and the economy to adjust," she stated.
The main implications of a shrinking population are that the resident labor force will begin to decline, and all economic activity related to population numbers will face a stagnant or declining market, according to Associate Professor Walter Theseira, a labour economist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences.
He went on to say, "Any economic activity catering to the domestic consumption sector, such as our food and beverage and retail industries, would suffer significantly from a declining resident population."
"It could be offset to some extent by a non-resident migrant population and tourists, but the long-term impact is likely to be substantial. It's difficult to conceive any industry that wouldn't be negatively impacted."
According to Dr. Leong Chan-Hoong, head of the Social Cohesion Research Programme at Nanyang Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, an older population could place a greater financial burden on working-age persons.
He noted that he is concerned about how these demographic difficulties would effect immigration rates, as well as their impact on racial and national identity and social cohesion.
The potential impact on Singapore's social fabric and national identity is a critical aspect of this demographic shift. As the country grapples with an aging population and potentially increased reliance on immigration, questions arise about maintaining social cohesion and the Singaporean way of life. The government faces the delicate task of balancing economic needs with preserving cultural identity, ensuring that any policies implemented to address population decline do not inadvertently create social tensions or dilute the sense of national unity that Singapore has carefully cultivated over the years.
Professor Yeung stated that the Singapore government has been planning for this demographic crisis. "That's why a carefully calibrated number of immigrants have been added to Singapore's population every year in the past decades," she told reporters. Singapore's population stood at 5.92 million as of June 2023, up 5% from 5.64 million the previous year.
Between June 2022 and June 2023, the citizen population climbed by 1.6% to 3.61 million, while the permanent resident population increased by 3.7% to 0.54 million. The non-resident population, which includes foreigners working or studying in Singapore, increased by 13.1% from 1.56 million in June 2022 to 1.77 million in June 2023, according to the Population In Brief 2023 report.
These population figures highlight the complex dynamics at play in Singapore's demographic landscape. The significant increase in the non-resident population suggests that immigration is already playing a crucial role in maintaining population growth and addressing labor shortages. However, this approach comes with its own set of challenges, including potential strain on infrastructure, housing, and public services. As Singapore navigates this demographic transition, policymakers will need to strike a delicate balance between leveraging immigration to support economic growth and ensuring sustainable development that benefits both long-term residents and newcomers alike.
